In the world of beans, Canada faces a significant downturn as reports indicate a substantial 21% decrease in dry bean production for the upcoming year. The landscape, once flourishing, is now navigating stormy waters.
Canada’s Dry Bean Exports Take a Hit
In the preceding year (2021-22), Canada’s dry bean exports witnessed a slump, registering at 327 thousand tonnes (Kt). The European Union (EU) and the United States emerged as the top two markets, with modest volumes finding their way to Japan and Mexico. The primary culprits behind this decline were lower production, a robust Canadian dollar, and discerning markets seeking budget-friendly options.
Weaker Canadian Dollar Paves the Way
The weaker Canadian dollar played a pivotal role in bolstering the dry bean market. Coupled with a diminished North American dry bean crop, this lent substantial support, leading to a 30% surge in Canadian dry bean prices from the previous year. The market, like a seesaw, responded to the currency fluctuation with a significant upward swing.
Looking ahead to 2022-23, the forecast paints a somber picture with a projected 21% decline in dry bean production, totaling 305 Kt. This includes 80 Kt of white pea bean types and 225 Kt of colored bean types. Ontario and Alberta experience a dip in production, while Manitoba sees a rise to 122 Kt. Despite higher carry-in stocks, the overall supply is expected to shrink by 5%, standing at 0.55 million tonnes (mt).
New Markets Challenges Beckon And Future Projections
Exports are anticipated to rise, reaching 350 Kt, with the US and the EU maintaining their positions as key markets. Interestingly, Canada eyes an expansion of its market share in Africa. The journey ahead seems like an expedition, navigating through both familiar and uncharted territories.
With a forecasted decrease in carry-out stocks to 115 Kt, the average Canadian dry bean price is expected to witness a marginal increase, reaching a record $1,235 or €1,134 per tonne. The symmetry between North American supply and pricing becomes evident, creating a challenging yet potentially rewarding market.
The US Story and Global Dynamics
Across the border, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) unveils its forecast, predicting a 10% reduction in the area seeded to dry beans. A smaller expanse in North Dakota and Minnesota contributes to this decline. However, the US anticipates a total dry bean production of just over 1.1 million tonnes, up by 11% from the previous year. This surge is attributed to higher yields and reduced abandonment.
Guiding these turbulent bean markets requires strategic acumen. The challenges are substantial, but with adaptability and market intelligence, there’s potential for the bean landscape to flourish once again.