The global cardamom market is experiencing exceptional volatility and sustained bullish sentiment as extreme weather disrupts production across Northeast India and key neighboring countries. With the 2025 monsoon season ushering in heavy rains and flooding throughout Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Assam, a sharp contraction in big cardamom supply has rapidly reverberated through both auction and spot markets. Auction arrivals remain lower than average, causing prices to surge despite subdued domestic sales volumes. This tightening supply is reinforced by production setbacks in Nepal and Bhutan, where unseasonably high temperatures and storm events have resulted in significant yield losses. Latest data shows India’s average auction prices for big cardamom now range between $15.00–$22.04 per kg, reflecting market nervousness and supply scarcity.
Meanwhile, wholesale prices for Kainchi Cut big cardamom in Indian local markets have undergone only a slight correction, dropping around $0.12 per kg to $19.08–$19.20 per kg; yet the broader trend remains upward, as two consecutive poor harvests and international supply woes continue to weigh heavily on inventories. Export demand has stayed robust, with India achieving notable year-on-year growth in both tonnage and value. Given persistent adverse weather, weak stock replenishment, and continued export flows, the risk of further price escalation is substantial should domestic consumption strengthen again in the coming weeks.
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Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 18.95 €/kg
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Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 17.08 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green, 8 mm
FOB 25.53 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Market Overview & Auction Highlights
| Product | Type | Organic | Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Price (USD/kg) | Update Date | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm | Yes | 18.95 | 18.95 | 2025-06-07 | New Delhi (FOB) |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99% | Yes | 17.08 | 17.08 | 2025-06-07 | New Delhi (FOB) |
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | No | 25.53 | 25.53 | 2025-06-07 | New Delhi (FOB) |
- Auction prices (all India, avg.): $15.00–$22.04/kg (as of 2025-05-29)
- Wholesale Kainchi Cut: $19.08–$19.20/kg, slight correction from recent peak
- Market Sentiment: Firm/Bullish due to adverse weather and thin arrivals
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- India: Heavy monsoon and flooding in Sikkim, NE India hampering harvests (up to 70% loss on first crop)
- Nepal: Severe production drop, minimal arrivals at major Indian auction centers
- Bhutan: Ongoing crop stress, limited marketable surplus
- Exports: India exported 1,181.22 tonnes ($23.65m) last month vs 1,055.09 tonnes ($14.07m) YoY
- Imports: Rising import costs from Nepal, tight cross-border supplies
- Domestic Demand: Spot sales modest, but resilient enough to sustain high prices
📊 Market Fundamentals & Regional Production
| Country | Est. 2024/25 Production (tonnes) | Est. Stock Change (%) | Major Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Down 60–70% | – | Severe weather, yield loss |
| Nepal | Substantially lower | – | Flood, reduced output |
| Bhutan | Lower | – | Adverse conditions |
- Both crops (first and second) in NE India have suffered significant shortfalls
- Spot and auction market arrivals below multi-year averages
- Strong demand maintains export volumes despite premium prices
🌦️ Weather Watch: Monsoon Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- Northeast India: Persistent heavy monsoon rains and flash flooding continue across Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, and Assam—no immediate easing forecast through next week; this may hinder fieldwork and prolong supply shortages into late June.
- Nepal & Bhutan: Unrelenting precipitation and above-average temperatures threaten second-crop development. Damage assessment indicates no quick recovery in available stocks.
- Forecast Impact: Upcoming weeks likely to see continued low arrivals; potential further yield loss possible if wet trend persists.
📌 Key Drivers and Speculative Positioning
- Supply Tightness: Major regional crop losses amplified by logistics and cross-border bottlenecks
- Export Momentum: Sustained trade demand, especially from Middle East and South Asia markets
- Speculator Activity: Market sentiment remains bullish; tight stocks keep uptrend intact
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Hold back stocks for possible higher gains unless cash flow is urgent
- Exporters: Fulfill contracts swiftly as further upward price movement is likely
- Buyers/Processors: Consider scaled-in buying as supply constraints look set to persist through next month
- Traders: Monitor weather updates and auction arrivals closely; short-term speculative buying may be profitable
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (2025-06-08 to 2025-06-10)
| Location | Price Range (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB, 7.5-8 mm, organic) | 18.90–19.30 | Firm/Higher |
| New Delhi (FOB, 8 mm, conv.) | 25.45–26.10 | Firm/Higher |
| Major Indian Auctions | 15.10–22.10 | Firm/Bullish |
In conclusion, with weather risks mounting, depleted inventories, and resilient export demand, the big cardamom market remains on a bullish footing with limited short-term relief in sight for buyers.