The global cardamom market, especially for big cardamom, is in a phase of pronounced supply tightness and price firmness. The surge in prices reflects a combination of unsettling crop forecasts, limited arrivals, and climatic disruptions across key growing regions of India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim. Despite healthy monsoon coverage, severe flooding and heavy rains in India’s Northeast—where the bulk of big cardamom is grown—have dented crop prospects and delayed the cycle of fresh arrivals. Auctions were suspended for more than a month, and although spot market sales remain muted, persistent supply concerns are nudging prices upward.
Notably, high input costs and restricted flows from neighboring countries have compounded India’s tight supply scenario, as evident from stagnant imports from Nepal and Bhutan, both of which are grappling with crop damage. While the 2024–25 season’s exports mark an improvement in volume and value, the underlying production constraints mean buyers should brace for a sustained period of elevated prices until new arrivals begin. With the upcoming first harvest forecast at half its usual size and uncertainty hanging over the second crop, all eyes remain on the weather in the lead-up to the next major crop window.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cardamom powder
FOB 25.30 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 18.40 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 16.60 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Latest Market Prices
| Product | Type | Purity | Organic | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date | Change (EUR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder | Yes | New Delhi | 25.30 | 25.36 | 2025-07-12 | -0.06 | ||
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm | Yes | New Delhi | 18.40 | 18.46 | 2025-07-12 | -0.06 | |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm | 99% | Yes | New Delhi | 16.60 | 16.65 | 2025-07-12 | -0.05 |
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | No | New Delhi | 24.76 | 24.67 | 2025-07-12 | +0.09 | |
| Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm | No | New Delhi | 22.51 | 22.44 | 2025-07-12 | +0.07 | |
| Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm | No | New Delhi | 24.04 | 23.95 | 2025-07-12 | +0.09 | |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm | No | New Delhi | 21.33 | 21.30 | 2025-07-12 | +0.03 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- India’s yields hit by weather: The first 2025 harvest is seen at just 50% of average due to adverse weather in Northeast India—especially Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya.
- Arrivals and auctions paused: Floods and logistical bottlenecks stopped auctions for over a month; fresh arrivals are minimal and spot market trades are thin.
- Neighboring disruptions: Nepal and Bhutan both report reduced arrivals and no significant relief for importers owing to similarly poor harvests and high prices.
- Upbeat export momentum: For 2024–25, Indian big cardamom exports rose to 1,368.34 tonnes (from 1,280.82 tonnes in 2023–24), while value surged to $2.75 million from $1.77 million a year earlier.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment
- Wholesale prices remain firm: The Kainchicut variety is quoted at $17.25–$17.37/kg (recent auction average: $14.97–$21.70/kg).
- Sentiment bullish: Ongoing supply constraints, both in India and neighboring countries, keep a strong bullish bias intact for the next several weeks.
- Resistance at higher levels: Some buyer pushback is visible above $17.50/kg, leading to mild corrections, but upside risk persists.
- Last season’s disappointment: Both first and second crops in 2024 underperformed, reinforcing low stocks and nervousness about any weather surprises in the months ahead.
⛅ Weather Outlook: Monsoon Impact
- Current monsoon status: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) confirms above-average rainfall for Northeast India, but excess in Sikkim and Assam has triggered flash floods, road blockages, and crop inundation.
- Short-term forecast: The next 1–2 weeks are likely to see persistent heavy showers, possibly slowing any early fieldwork for the second crop and prolonging logistical challenges for market arrivals.
- Potential risks: Soil erosion and excess water stress could further hinder recovery of damaged plants if the wet conditions continue, though gradual improvement is possible if monsoon intensity drops in late July.
🌐 Production & Trade Snapshot
| Country | 2024–25 Output (est.) | Exports (tonnes) | Exports (US$ million) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~50% below normal on first crop | 1,368.34 | 2.75 |
| Nepal | Sharply lower due to weather | Minimal | Minimal |
| Bhutan | Weather-impacted | Minimal | Minimal |
| Sikkim (India) | Substantial losses | N/A | N/A |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For exporters: Capitalize on firm price momentum—commit to advance contracts where possible, given risk of further rises before the next harvest.
- For importers/traders: Consider limited forward procurement to hedge against upward spikes as supply remains very tight and import alternatives from Nepal/Bhutan are also constrained.
- For processors: Monitor local arrivals closely; look for buying dips on minor corrections, but do not expect significant easing until late-summer arrivals.
- Weather risks: Closely track rainfall patterns and IMD advisories—late-season storm risks could further squeeze supply.
- Long-term investment: Focus on procurement from diverse origins and consider inventory builds if access to working capital permits.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB New Delhi, EUR/kg)
| Date | Cardamom powder | Cardamom whole (7.5-8mm, organic) | Cardamom whole (6.0-6.5mm, organic) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-13 | 25.30 | 18.45 | 16.64 |
| 2025-07-14 | 25.36 | 18.48 | 16.68 |
| 2025-07-15 | 25.38 | 18.52 | 16.70 |
Price trend: Slight upward bias, with further gains possible should weather disruptions persist in the Northeast growing belt.
