Paraná’s Wheat Production Expected to Decline
The Department of Rural Economy (Deral) has released its Subjective Crop Forecast (PSS), revealing an estimated wheat production of 3.61 million tons for the state of Paraná in 2023. This marks a 1% decrease compared to the 3.64 million tons harvested last year. The drop is primarily attributed to prolonged drought conditions, especially in the northern regions, which have led to smaller wheat heads and limited crop development.
Agronomist Carlos Hugo Godinho noted that while indicators point to potential losses, the actual harvest has not yet begun, making it challenging to project the final volume accurately. Harvesting is set to start in August, beginning with areas most affected by the drought. “The results from these areas will provide more reliable numbers,” Godinho emphasized.
Winter Crops Show Resilience
Other winter crops have been less impacted by the adverse weather conditions compared to wheat. These crops are primarily located in the southern and southwestern regions of the state, where the drought has been less severe. These areas are expected to produce yields in line with initial projections.
Rapid Progress in Second Corn Crop Harvest
The harvest of the second corn crop for the 2023/24 season is progressing rapidly, with 76% of the 2.5 million hectares harvested to date. This is a significant increase compared to the average of 30% harvested in July over the past decade. Edmar Gervásio, a crop analyst at Deral, stated that such a high percentage in July is unprecedented but can be considered normal for this season, given the early planting that was possible at the start of the agricultural zoning, particularly in the western part of the state, which accounts for over a third of the total corn area.
Last year, the second corn crop covered 2.38 million hectares, but this area has increased by 5% to 2.5 million hectares in the current cycle. Despite the increase in planting area, the estimated production is 12.96 million tons, a 9% decrease from the 14.26 million tons produced in the 2022/23 season. “Although the increase in area is significant, the losses caused by climatic conditions have been substantial,” Gervásio remarked.
The agricultural sector in Paraná is facing mixed fortunes due to the varying impacts of climate conditions. While wheat production is expected to decline slightly due to prolonged drought, other winter crops are showing resilience. The rapid progress in the corn harvest is a positive development, although overall production is down due to climate-related losses. These dynamics underscore the importance of adaptive strategies in agriculture to mitigate the impacts of climate variability.
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