Calm Before the Harvest: Georgian Hazelnut Prices Ease into Late August

Spot prices for Georgian hazelnut kernels in Warsaw eased slightly into 18 August, with kernels 11–13 mm around EUR 8.90/kg FCA and 13–15 mm near EUR 10.10/kg, reflecting a soft but orderly market as the new crop approaches. Organic Turkish material remains much higher, keeping a wide premium but showing little short‑term momentum. Georgian hazelnut prices are drifting lower but without signs of panic selling, as buyers wait for clearer indications on 2026/27 crop size in both Georgia and Turkey. Recent industry estimates still point to adequate global supply for 2025/26, while demand remains restrained after several seasons of elevated prices. Weather in western Georgia’s hazelnut belt has turned seasonally warm with intermittent showers, supporting nut fill without major stress in the final pre‑harvest weeks. With physical harvest activity just starting in Turkey’s Black Sea region, nearby prices are likely to remain range‑bound, with modest downside risk if early yield reports confirm comfortable supply.

Prices

Georgian hazelnut kernels delivered FCA Warsaw on 17 August show a mild week‑on‑week decline of roughly EUR 0.10/kg across main calibers, leaving natural 11–13 mm at about EUR 8.90/kg, 13–15 mm at EUR 10.10/kg, and 15+ mm near EUR 10.50/kg. Conventional Turkish kernels FOB Istanbul, converted to EUR, remain below Georgian FCA levels on smaller calibers but have also eased slightly since early August, consistent with softer in‑shell values reported in Turkey earlier this year.

Organic Turkish hazelnut kernels FOB Izmir continue to trade at a substantial premium, with main sizes broadly in a EUR 18–23/kg range, but prices have been largely flat since mid‑August, reflecting limited spot liquidity rather than strong fresh buying. The combination of easing conventional prices and sticky organic offers keeps differentials historically wide, which may cap any near‑term upside for conventional kernels if demand does not accelerate.

Supply & Demand

Global hazelnut supply for 2025/26 is expected to remain comfortable, with recent international industry statistics indicating world production above 1.0 million tons in‑shell equivalent, led by Turkey, the US, Italy, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Turkey’s 2025/26 in‑shell crop is estimated around 518,000–528,000 tons, down from the prior season but still supported by significant carry‑in stocks, while Georgia’s crop is projected broadly stable around 45,000 tons.

Earlier this year, Turkish export reports pointed to in‑shell prices at the lowest levels since August 2025, reflecting weak overseas demand and growers facing much lower local currency returns compared with last year’s peak. Combined with recent reports from Oregon and other emerging origins about good quality and strong specialty demand, the market narrative has shifted away from acute shortage toward a more balanced, even slightly oversupplied outlook in the medium term. This backdrop encourages cautious purchasing behavior among EU roasters and confectionery buyers.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Georgia)

In western Georgia’s Samegrelo‑Zemo Svaneti region around Zugdidi, a key hazelnut‑growing belt, the 3‑day outlook from 18 to 20 August points to warm temperatures around 27–30°C daytime highs, with a mix of clouds, sunshine and scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms. These conditions are broadly favorable for final nut fill and do not indicate any imminent weather threat, as risks from spring frost and early summer heat are already behind the crop.

Current field images from the wider Black Sea basin show hazelnut harvesting underway in nearby Turkish coastal areas, confirming the seasonal timeline and suggesting that Georgian orchards are entering the late pre‑harvest stage. Given the absence of extreme rainfall or prolonged heat in the forecast, quality risks for Georgian nuts over the coming days appear limited, keeping fundamental pressure on prices muted in the very short term.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

Recent agricultural investment and nut industry reports indicate that global hazelnut markets remain structurally tight versus pre‑2020 levels but have eased compared with the immediate aftermath of Turkish frost‑related shortfalls. Industrial users have partially covered 2026 needs earlier in the year at higher levels, which, combined with more comfortable supply expectations, reduces the urgency for additional spot buying ahead of the Northern Hemisphere harvest.

Speculative interest appears limited, with no fresh signals of aggressive stock building in major consuming regions. The slight decline in Georgian FCA prices over the past month, alongside low and weakening in‑shell values in Turkey, suggests a market consolidating after previous rallies rather than entering a new bull phase. This leaves nearby prices sensitive mainly to early yield and quality reports from Turkey and Georgia during the next 2–4 weeks.

Trading Outlook

• EU buyers / roasters: Consider scaling into coverage on Georgian kernels 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm on further dips of EUR 0.10–0.20/kg, as current levels already reflect a more comfortable global balance while harvest‑time logistics could tighten nearby availability.
• Georgian sellers: With weather supportive and no acute shortage signals, maintaining offer discipline around current FCA indications appears reasonable; avoid heavy pre‑harvest forward selling until clearer information on actual yields and kernel quality emerges.
• Organic segment: Organic Turkish kernels remain richly priced relative to conventional; buyers may delay incremental purchases or favor mixed strategies (part conventional, part organic) if demand flexibility permits.

3‑Day Price Direction (Key Regions, in EUR)

• Georgia → Warsaw, FCA kernels: Stable to slightly softer (−0.05 to −0.10 EUR/kg) as harvest approaches and buyers wait for early crop data.
• Turkey FOB kernels (conventional): Broadly stable with mild downward bias, tracking weak in‑shell sentiment and cautious export demand.
• Turkey FOB kernels (organic): Flat; thin liquidity and strong producer price expectations limit short‑term downside despite soft conventional market.