This season, the large cardamom market is confronting mounting uncertainties driven by severe weather disruptions across primary producing regions. Erratic rainfall, flash floods, and unchecked temperatures in Northeast India—specifically Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh—have undermined both the harvest and future production prospects. These factors, coupled with heavy crop losses reported in Nepal and Bhutan, have sent shockwaves through supply chains, constraining arrivals and curtailing market activity. While some firmness has been observed at select auctions, the broader market sentiment remains soft, reflecting a profound imbalance between weak demand and a sharply reduced supply base.
Auction prices in key trading hubs like Siliguri have displayed significant volatility, and any earlier optimism fueled by upward price momentum has faded amid muted buyer participation. Field estimates point to crop losses of up to 70 percent and downward revisions in regional output to just 6,000 tonnes—a drastic year-on-year decline. As buyers and sellers navigate these turbulent conditions, all eyes turn to upcoming weather developments, sustained supply tightness, and the gradual resumption of cross-border trade from Nepal and Bhutan. In short, the market remains on edge, with a hard floor under prices even as overall demand falters.
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Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 18.48 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 16.67 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green, 8 mm
FOB 24.87 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Key Market Indicators
| Product | Grade/Size | Organic | Origin | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm | Yes | IN | New Delhi | 18.85 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm | Yes | IN | New Delhi | 17.00 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | No | IN | New Delhi | 25.20 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm | No | IN | New Delhi | 22.92 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm | No | IN | New Delhi | 24.46 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom powder | – | Yes | IN | New Delhi | 25.90 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm | No | IN | New Delhi | 21.75 | 2025-06-21 |
Recent Auction Results (Siliguri):
- Mid-June: 15.06–21.83 USD/kg (avg. 17.85 USD/kg)
- May 2025: 16.48 USD/kg; April: 15.42 USD/kg
- Last drop: -0.84 USD/kg in recent sessions
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Supply: Persistent adverse weather in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nepal, and Bhutan. 2024–25 output may drop to 6,000 tonnes vs. 8,000 tonnes in 2023–24.
- Demand: Remains weak with hesitant procurement at auctions. Buyers cautious amid volatile market and unpredictable arrivals.
- Trade Flows: Nepalese supplies to India disrupted; imports likely to remain low in coming months.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Weather Impact: Crop losses estimated at 60–70%. Flash floods and erratic rainfall in critical Himalayan belt hurt both the first and second harvest rounds.
- Production Shortfall: Both India and Nepal facing multi-year low outputs. Bhutan’s forecasts also revised down.
- Pricing Trend: Despite lackluster demand, declining arrivals and ongoing weather distress support price firmness. Month-on-month auction prices up sharply.
- Stock Situation: On-farm and household availability extremely limited, resale activity subdued.
🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook
- Current conditions: Above-average temperatures and continued chance of unseasonal rain forecast for Northeast India and Eastern Himalayas over next week.
- Potential impact: Further plant stress and yield reduction possible, especially if extreme weather persists through late June and July.
- Field reports: Yield for first crop down up to 70%, second crop below normal; all regions reported high plant losses.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023/24 Output (tonnes) | 2024/25E Output (tonnes) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~6,000 | ~4,500–5,000 | -17% to -25% |
| Nepal | ~1,500 | ~1,000 | -33% |
| Bhutan | ~500 | ~300–400 | -20% to -40% |
| Total | ~8,000 | ~6,000 | -25% |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- ⚠️ Supply-driven tightness expected to persist, with continued uncertainty from weather disruptions and Nepalese supply delays.
- 🔒 Prices likely to remain firm, offering upside risk as buyers seek to cover near-term needs amid volatile arrivals.
- 🕰️ Spot market participation may remain subdued as bulk buyers await more clarity on new crop prospects.
- 👉 Producers advised to release stocks gradually; traders should monitor Nepalese and Bhutanese harvest updates closely.
- 🌍 Importers: Prepare for potential further tightening and volatile premiums in the international market.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Hubs)
| Location | Grade | Forecast Range (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | whole, green 7.5-8 mm | 18.75–19.15 | Firm |
| New Delhi (FOB) | whole, green 6.0-6.5 mm | 16.9–17.2 | Stable/Firm |
| Siliguri (Auction) | all grades | 17.5–18.3 (USD/kg) | Firm/Volatile |