The global cardamom market is currently caught in a complex web of supply disruption and subdued demand, driven by unprecedented weather events during the 2025 monsoon. Heavy rainfall and severe flooding hit India’s primary big cardamom-producing states—such as Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh—early in the season, leading to extensive crop damage and disruptive auction activity. While auction arrivals remain well below normal, pushing prices upward in the initial weeks, a subsequent fall in both domestic and export demand has now created downward pressure on spot prices. Producers in Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim are likewise contending with weather-induced yield losses, resulting in regionally constrained supply.
Notably, big cardamom variety Kainchi Cut slid by roughly $0.48, now trading between $18.48 and $18.60 per kg, signalling renewed price volatility. The Indian market has seen export volumes rise year-over-year; however, revenue growth outpaced volumes, reflecting earlier high prices—an effect that is now fading as market activity and buyer support weaken. Barring a rebound in demand or a marked improvement in weather, cardamom prices are set to hover in a tight band, weighed down by auction shortfalls and lingering uncertainty about future crop recovery.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 18.85 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 17.00 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green, 8 mm
FOB 25.20 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Exchange Overview
| Product | Type/Size | Organic | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm | Yes | New Delhi (FOB) | 18.85 | 0.00 | Neutral / Cautious |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99% | Yes | New Delhi (FOB) | 17.00 | 0.00 | Bearish |
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | No | New Delhi (FOB) | 25.20 | 0.00 | Neutral / Cautious |
| Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm | No | New Delhi (FOB) | 22.92 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm | No | New Delhi (FOB) | 24.46 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Cardamom powder | – | Yes | New Delhi (FOB) | 25.90 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm | No | New Delhi (FOB) | 21.75 | 0.00 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Severe Monsoon Disruption: Flooding and excessive rainfall in India’s northeast (Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh) led to 60%-70% crop damage; Nepal and Bhutan report comparable losses.
- Weak Domestic Demand: Spot market sales lag, curbing upward price movement despite low arrivals at auctions.
- Export Dynamics: Indian big cardamom exports increased to 1,368.34 tonnes (valued at $27.54M) in 2024–25, up from 1,280.82 tonnes ($17.78M) a year earlier.
- Import Constraints: High costs and low availability have rendered Nepalese imports economically infeasible, further tightening Indian supply.
- Regional Availability: With Bhutan and Sikkim hit by similar weather woes, market supply remains restricted through Q2 2025.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Comparisons
| Country | 2024–25 Export Volume (tonnes) | Export Value (USD million) | Crop Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1,368.34 | 27.54 | Heavy weather-related loss (60%-70% reduction) |
| Nepal | Limited | ~ | Low arrivals; high import costs |
| Bhutan | ~ | ~ | Similar flood/crop damage as Sikkim/India |
| Sikkim (India) | ~ | ~ | Extreme loss, disruption of auction activity |
- Compared to previous periods, both volume and value of Indian exports ticked up, but spot price momentum has weakened amid low demand.
- Regional inventories remain tight, and stocks are unlikely to recover until at least the next main harvest—dependent on improved weather conditions.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- India, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh: Continued rainfall with risk of localized flooding; further crop stress likely if conditions persist through July.
- Nepal & Bhutan: Early monsoon has brought unstable weather; further risk to late-developing pods and ongoing transportation disruptions.
- Yield Forecast: Overall, key regions may close the season with production down 60%-70% from average. Recovery prospects are weak unless weather normalizes soon.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Sellers: Hold offers where possible; further decline in arrivals may provide pockets of support, but lack of demand caps upside.
- Buyers: Take a wait-and-watch approach; bargains likely as sellers accept lower bids to stimulate weak market.
- Traders: Expect sideways price movement unless there is a shock rebalancing in demand or weather. Position trading around €17–21.60/kg for standard grades.
- Monitor weather and auction reports closely. Sudden changes could drive price volatility.
- Watch for import price signals—any short-term drop in Nepalese rates could swiftly rebalance Indian market sentiment.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Product/Grade | Forecast Price Range (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Cardamom whole, 7.5-8 mm, organic | 18.50 – 18.85 |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Cardamom whole, 6.0-6.5 mm, organic | 16.80 – 17.10 |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Cardamom whole, 8 mm, non-organic | 25.00 – 25.20 |
