Cardamom Market Heats Up: Supply Squeeze and Demand Drive Prices Higher

The cardamom market is experiencing a notable upswing, fueled by persistent supply shortages and a resurgence in demand. In recent weeks, big cardamom prices have rebounded sharply from their spring lows, with local wholesale markets now quoting rates as high as $18.60–18.72 per kg for the Kainchi Cut variety. This rally, which saw a swift gain of $0.36–0.48 per kg, is attributed to renewed stockist interest after prices had briefly softened to $17.88–18.00 per kg. The upward momentum is underpinned by a weak domestic harvest and limited imports from Nepal, both of which have kept inventories tight and sentiment bullish. Notably, Nepal’s own production woes—now in their third consecutive year—have kept import prices elevated at around $19.14 per kg, making Indian supplies relatively attractive despite their own constraints. With the next domestic crop not expected until late August or early September, and no significant improvement in output forecast, the market is bracing for continued tightness. Market participants anticipate that prices could climb another $1.20 per kg in the near term, especially if demand remains robust and weather conditions do not improve. In this context, understanding the latest price trends, supply dynamics, and weather outlook is crucial for traders and industry stakeholders seeking to navigate the current volatility.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Organic	Location	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Cardamom whole	green, 7.5-8 mm	Yes	New Delhi, IN	19.00	19.20	-0.20	Firm
Cardamom powder	–	Yes	New Delhi, IN	26.05	26.20	-0.15	Firm
Cardamom whole	green 6.0-6.5 mm	Yes	New Delhi, IN	17.11	17.30	-0.19	Steady
Cardamom whole	green, 8 mm	No	New Delhi, IN	25.56	25.85	-0.29	Firm
Cardamom whole	green 7-7.2 mm	No	New Delhi, IN	23.45	23.72	-0.27	Firm
Cardamom whole	green 7.5 mm	No	New Delhi, IN	24.82	25.10	-0.28	Firm
Cardamom whole	green 6.5-6.8 mm	No	New Delhi, IN	22.12	22.38	-0.26	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Domestic harvest remains poor, with auction and spot market arrivals notably weak. Imports from Nepal are minimal, as Nepal’s own output is constrained by adverse weather for the third year running.
• Demand: Stockist and wholesale demand has returned strongly, especially after the recent price dip. Improved festival and export demand is also supporting prices.
• Inventories: Trade sources report depleted stocks at both origin and destination markets, elevating spot market sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals

• May 22 auction prices ranged from $14.99 to $20.99 per kg, reflecting wide quality spreads and strong spot market competition.
• Import parity from Nepal is at $19.14 per kg, keeping Indian prices competitive despite tightness.
• Speculative interest is rising as traders anticipate further price gains ahead of the new crop.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Key growing regions in India and Nepal have faced below-normal rainfall and erratic temperature swings, hampering flowering and pod development.
• Short-term forecasts indicate continued dry spells in Sikkim, Darjeeling, and eastern Nepal, raising concerns about the 2025/26 crop potential.
• Unless monsoon conditions improve substantially before July, yield recovery is unlikely, supporting continued supply tightness into the new marketing year.

🌐 Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2023/24 Output (est., tons)	2024/25 Output (fcast., tons)	Stocks (May 2025, tons)
India	6,700	6,500	Low
Nepal	4,800	4,700	Low
Bhutan	1,050	1,000	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect further price firmness through July as supply remains tight and demand holds steady.
• Short-term corrections possible if speculative selling emerges, but downside is limited by weak supply fundamentals.
• Importers should consider forward booking to hedge against further price escalation before the new crop arrives in late August/September.
• Exporters and stockists are advised to hold positions but monitor weather and auction trends closely.
• Watch for any early monsoon developments or government interventions that could shift sentiment.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Product	Current (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast (USD/kg)	Trend
New Delhi	Cardamom whole, green 7.5-8 mm	19.00	19.20–19.40	Firm/Up
New Delhi	Cardamom powder	26.05	26.10–26.30	Steady/Firm
New Delhi	Cardamom whole, green 6.0-6.5 mm	17.11	17.20–17.35	Steady