The Cardamom market is at a crucial juncture as 2025 unfolds. The season has been disrupted by the early onset and sustained intensity of the South-West monsoon, which has resulted in excessive rainfall across key Indian growing belts like Idukki. This has given rise to severe fungal diseases, notably clump rot, causing significant anxiety among growers. The direct impact has been delayed harvesting—now set to begin only by mid-July or August—combined with a downward revision in crop output estimates by as much as 10–15%. With minimal carryover stocks due to last year’s poor production, the market pipeline remains clear, and fresh arrivals are expected to be absorbed swiftly by both domestic and international buyers.
Prices have already firmed up on tightening supply, averaging around USD 31.93/kg in June, with indications of further escalation as the main auction season approaches. On the global front, Guatemala’s ongoing production recovery struggles—rooted in its own rainfall deficits—have bolstered India’s competitiveness, triggering a pickup in export demand just as local demand lags. Despite weather setbacks and uncertainty over yields, robust export opportunities and low stocks are underpinning a bullish, albeit volatile, market outlook. Market participants should brace for price swings over the next two months, particularly as bulk arrivals commence in August and global supply-demand balances remain delicately poised.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 18.85 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 17.00 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green, 8 mm
FOB 25.20 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Current Cardamom Market Levels
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm (Organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 18.85 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm (Organic, 99%) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 17.00 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm (Conv.) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 25.20 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm (Conv.) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 22.92 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm (Conv.) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 24.46 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom powder | – (Organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 25.90 | 2025-06-21 |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm (Conv.) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 21.75 | 2025-06-21 |
- Current auction price (average): USD 31.93/kg
- Trend: Firm to higher, with upside risks until bulk arrivals in August
- Market sentiment: Bullish in short/medium term, volatile outlook post-harvest
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Weather: Excessive rainfall and winds in May–June; fungal disease pressure; harvest delayed to mid-July/August
- Stocks: Low carryover from 2024; pipeline clear for new crop absorption
- Production: Indian crop output now estimated 10–15% lower, around 30,000 tonnes
- Export Demand: Strong, especially as Guatemala remains unable to recover due to drought; India positioned as leading global supplier August–January
- Domestic Demand: Weak but stable; exporters driving price dynamics
📊 Fundamentals & Global Situation
| Country | 2024/25 Production (Est.) | Stock Status | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 30,000 t | Minimal/Low | Best positioned for export; disease risk |
| Guatemala | 15,000–18,000 t | Reduced/Struggling | Drought; slow recovery |
| Other (World) | <4,000 t | Mixed | Minor exporters/importers |
- Inventory: Tightest since 2022; high likelihood of price spikes with any new supply shock
- Speculative Activity: Increased buying interest among exporters; potential for rapid reversals post-August
- Key Comparison: Unlike 2024, production is now more concentrated in India, increasing global price sensitivity to Indian output
⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Analysis
- India – Idukki/High Ranges: Rest of June: More moderate, scattered rains expected; fungal disease likely to persist, but with lower intensity if drier weather in July emerges.
- Harvest: Delayed, beginning mid-July; bulk arrivals projected in August
- Yield Impact: Likely 10–15% drop vs. initial forecasts due to fruit drop and rot; final output highly dependent on early-July dry spells
- Global: Guatemala may see some rainfall, but below-normal accumulations continue; no quick production rebound likely
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Secure near-term needs promptly—tight supply and active exports keep prices elevated
- Exporters: Capitalize on strong demand until August/September; watch for sudden sentiment reversal if bulk arrivals exceed expectations
- Traders/Speculators: Prepare for volatility as new crop comes in; anticipate potential price correction in late Q3 but upside risk remains if Guatemala continues struggling
- Producers: Prioritize plant protection measures and harvest operations to minimize fungal losses; post-harvest storage crucial as market enters seasonal peak
📅 3-Day Price Forecast: Key Indian Exchange/Export Market
| Date | Location | Price (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-22 | IDUKKI Auction | 32.10 | Bullish |
| 2025-06-23 | IDUKKI Auction | 32.25 | Bullish |
| 2025-06-24 | IDUKKI Auction | 32.35 | Bullish to Stable |
Note: Prices may soften once August bulk arrivals begin. Stay vigilant for new disease/weather developments and global macro events impacting the supply chain.
