The cardamom market is experiencing a period of relative stability as the first arrivals of large cardamom in both India and Nepal have begun. Despite the anticipation that new season supplies might shake up the market, actual inflows remain limited, preventing any significant deviation from current price trends. Farmers and market observers note that fresh volumes—though slowly gathering momentum—are not yet substantial enough to trigger notable upward or downward price swings. In key Indian growing belts, including Sikkim and West Bengal, market sentiment is steady and prices have largely held within a well-defined range. This subdued mood is echoed in Nepal, where early-season auction prices mirror those seen in India.
Looking ahead to the 2024–25 season, prospects of increased production—thanks to improved weather conditions—are dampening any lingering bullishness. There is optimism among growers and exporters that output will rise, which, when combined with regular arrivals from major origins, should keep the supply-demand equation balanced. While robust demand continues from traditional export markets in the Middle East and South Asia, analysts agree that the interplay of steady supply and modestly growing exports will likely cap any dramatic rallies in the near term.
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Cardamom powder
FOB 24.73 €/kg
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Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 17.99 €/kg
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Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 16.22 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Change (EUR) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder (Organic) | – | IN | New Delhi | 24.73 | +0.07 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
| Cardamom whole (green, 7.5-8 mm, Organic) | 7.5-8 mm | IN | New Delhi | 17.99 | +0.05 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
| Cardamom whole (green 6.0-6.5 mm, Organic, 99% purity) | 6.0-6.5 mm | IN | New Delhi | 16.22 | +0.04 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
| Cardamom whole (green, 8 mm) | 8 mm | IN | New Delhi | 24.19 | +0.07 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
| Cardamom whole (green 7-7.2 mm) | 7-7.2 mm | IN | New Delhi | 21.99 | +0.06 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
| Cardamom whole (green 7.5 mm) | 7.5 mm | IN | New Delhi | 23.40 | +0.01 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
| Cardamom whole (green 6.5-6.8 mm) | 6.5-6.8 mm | IN | New Delhi | 21.04 | +0.06 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India and Nepal both report first arrivals for large cardamom, but total market arrivals remain limited.
- Average auction prices currently range between USD 15.02–20.56 per kg, with spot market transactions largely confined to this bracket.
- Early-season offers in Nepal are also between USD 18.29–20.29 per kg, but supplies are arriving consistently enough to suppress any pronounced surge in prices.
- 2024–25 expectations: India exports projected at 3,000–3,200 tons; Nepal exports forecast at approximately 5,000 tons.
- Robust demand from the Middle East and South Asia, but expanding supply likely to temper any potential spike.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production for 2024–25 is expected to improve vs previous two years, owing to favorable weather in India and Nepal.
- Latest market commentary suggests the arrival of fresh crop is keeping expectations in check and precludes large-scale stockpiling by speculators.
- Market sentiment is firm yet cautious, with limited volatility expected in the near term.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Recent weather reports indicate normal to above-average rainfall in Sikkim and eastern Himalayan regions—key for large cardamom development.
- Temperature and precipitation trends remain generally favorable for pod formation and quality in both India and Nepal.
- No major disease outbreaks have been recorded, and the risk of weather-related crop losses in August–September is considered low.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024-25 Output Estimate (tons) | Export Estimate (tons) | Major Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | (Data Not Published – Production Rising) | 3,000–3,200 | Middle East, South Asia |
| Nepal | (Data Not Published – Production Rising) | ~5,000 | Middle East, South Asia |
📋 Key Market Drivers
- Early but limited new season arrivals in both India and Nepal.
- Market steadied by consistent supply; export demand remains strong but not overheated.
- Improved weather raises production prospects, capping upward pressure on prices.
- Sentiment is cautious—buyers are waiting for larger arrivals to guide future pricing.
📆 Short-term Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bulk buyers and exporters should consider incremental purchases within the USD 15–21/kg band, given low volatility and steady supply outlook.
- No major upside risk unless weather unexpectedly disrupts arrivals or Middle East demand surges abruptly.
- Sellers may hold back limited quantities in anticipation of a potential festive demand boost, but must monitor fresh arrivals closely.
- Spot traders to focus on quality differentials, as price premiums may emerge for higher-grade lots amid steady mid-range prices.
- Keep a close watch on Nepalese export activity, as any surge could shift regional market focus.
🔮 3-day Regional Price Forecast
- India (Sikkim/West Bengal auctions): USD 15.5–20.8/kg – Stable; low volatility expected as arrivals trickle in.
- Nepal (Auction/FOB): USD 18.3–20.5/kg – Firm; rising, but not rapidly, as early shipments continue.
- New Delhi (FOB, Green 7.5-8 mm): EUR 17.90–18.10/kg – Steady to slightly firm, tracking wider South Asian trends.
