Cardamom Market Holds Firm Amid Weather Disruptions and Tight Supply

The cardamom market has remained remarkably resilient in the face of considerable production and logistical headwinds this season. Persistent heavy rains and severe flooding across major growing regions in Northeast India—including Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, and neighboring areas of Bhutan and Nepal—have limited crop arrivals and prolonged supply tightness. No major auctions have been conducted in the past 20–25 days, reflecting the market’s struggle for fresh crop inflows and a subdued trade atmosphere in spot markets. Recent wholesale prices have seen moderate corrections, falling by approximately 0.84 USD per kg, to currently range between 17.11 and 17.23 USD per kg. Nevertheless, compared to the previous year, the export volume from India has seen a marked increase, signaling robust international demand amid constrained supplies. The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic: While the first crop of 2025 is down nearly 50% from normal due to adverse weather, initial forecasts for the second crop are more hopeful, though uncertainty and risk persist with three to four months yet before its harvest. Imports from Nepal continue to be hampered by high prices and limited volumes, reinforcing tightness in the Indian market. Experts anticipate prices will remain firm through the coming months, supported by structural supply issues and strong export demand. In summary, any short-term downward corrections are likely to be limited, and sustained tightness should prevent a prolonged downturn.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Cardamom whole	green, 7.5-8 mm (organic)	IN	New Delhi	18.46	18.46	2025-07-04	Stable
Cardamom powder	Organic	IN	New Delhi	25.36	25.36	2025-07-04	Stable
Cardamom whole	green 6.0-6.5 mm (organic, 99%)	IN	New Delhi	16.65	16.65	2025-07-04	Stable
Cardamom whole	green, 8 mm	IN	New Delhi	24.67	24.67	2025-07-04	Stable
Cardamom whole	green 7-7.2 mm	IN	New Delhi	22.44	22.44	2025-07-04	Stable
Cardamom whole	green 7.5 mm	IN	New Delhi	23.95	23.95	2025-07-04	Stable
Cardamom whole	green 6.5-6.8 mm	IN	New Delhi	21.30	21.30	2025-07-04	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Crop arrivals are sharply lower: Delayed first crop, only 50% of normal, due to flooding in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Bhutan.
• Import limitations: High costs and low arrivals from Nepal, another key supply region.
• No major auctions in the last 3–4 weeks, reflecting tight spot supply.
• International demand remains strong, supporting exporters.

📊 Fundamentals

• India’s exports (2024-25): 1,368.34 tonnes (worth 27.63 million USD), up from 1,280.82 tonnes (17.85 million USD) a year earlier.
• First crop output estimated at ~50% of normal; second crop outlook is average, but uncertainty persists due to ongoing adverse weather.
• Spot price movement: Recent drop of 0.84 USD/kg; latest auction prices (June 12) ranged from 15.06–21.83 USD/kg, depending on quality.
• Market sentiment: Bullish, with price corrections attributed to resistance at higher levels.

⛈️ Weather Outlook

• Northeast India (Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya): Continued rains and intermittent flooding risk persistence over the next week; weather stress likely to affect standing crops and impede field operations.
• Bhutan and Nepal: Similar weather patterns with reports of heavy rainfall and localized flooding (IMD Data).
• Yield prospects: Unlikely to improve for the first crop, while the second crop outcome will hinge on late monsoon patterns (outlook remains cautious).

🌐 Global Production and Stocks

Country	Est. 2024/25 Production (tonnes)	Stock Level/Sentiment	Remarks
India	Approx. 26,000	Tight	Poor first crop, better second crop outlook
Nepal	Approx. 7,000	Very tight	Flood impact, high local prices
Bhutan	Approx. 2,200	Low	Adverse weather
Bangladesh	n/a	Limited	Minor producer, prices up

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term corrections possible, but strong undercurrent will support prices into late Q3.
• Spot market activity to remain limited until new arrivals from the second crop late in the season.
• Importers should consider strategic coverage for Q3/Q4 requirements amid persistent tightness.
• Domestic traders: Watch for regional weather developments—late-monsoon rains could alter the second crop outlook.
• Exporters are well positioned; Indian product remains competitive against tight, costly Nepalese cardamom.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	New Delhi (EUR/kg)	Market Direction
2025-07-05	17.80–18.30	Stable/Bullish
2025-07-06	18.00–18.50	Bullish
2025-07-07	18.10–18.60	Bullish