The cardamom market finds itself in a period of subdued activity as the new harvest continues to arrive steadily from major producing regions such as India and Nepal. Despite the fresh influx, no immediate upward pressure on prices is anticipated, largely due to weak demand from both exporters and domestic processors. Early harvest typically results in price fluctuations, but this season, market sentiment has been swayed by reports of ample supply and less dynamic buying interest. The prevailing weather in key growing states, including Sikkim and Meghalaya, has influenced yields, though some areas benefit from improved climatic conditions compared to previous years.
With peak demand still some weeks away and exporter uptake limited, prices for large cardamom remain soft and are expected to stay within a narrow range in the short term. Unless purchasing from domestic processors and international buyers strengthens, particularly from the Middle East and Europe, a substantial price rally seems unlikely until after October when initial arrival pressures ease. On the production side, initial estimates for the 2025–26 season are promising, hinting at potentially record-high output should favorable weather hold through September. For now, market participants watch the harvest’s evolution and forthcoming weather closely to gauge any change in market direction.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Cardamom powder
FOB 24.85 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 18.07 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 16.30 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder | – | IN | New Delhi | 24.85 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm | IN | New Delhi | 18.07 | 0.00 | Weak |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99% purity | IN | New Delhi | 16.30 | 0.00 | Weak |
Wholesale prices in production centers are trading between $15.00–$17.25 per kg (approx. €13.90–€16.00), mirroring the slow pace of demand in local and export markets.
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Early harvests are leading to steady arrivals but have not triggered any notable price movement.
- Exporter and processor demand remains subdued as of early September, and domestic offtake is only expected to increase post-October.
- Supplies from Nepal are contributing to ample availability, preventing upward price moves despite some weather-related yield impacts in India.
📊 Fundamentals
- Harvest arrivals have begun and will likely continue gradually over the coming weeks.
- Average prices remain soft and are expected to stay range-bound until initial arrival pressures dissipate.
- The 2025–26 crop is anticipated to be larger due to better weather—raising the potential for record production if favorable monsoon patterns persist.
| Country | 2024–25 Production (est.) | 2023–24 Production | Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 32,000 t | 29,500 t | Stable |
| Nepal | 9,200 t | 8,800 t | Ample |
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Sikkim, Meghalaya & N. Bengal: The remainder of September is expected to see moderate rainfall, mixed with dry, sunny intervals—favorable for harvest operations. However, excessive rainfall could cause delays in some pockets.
- Nepal: Weather remains seasonally stable with only isolated showers predicted, supportive of continued crop arrivals.
- Short-term weather does not signal any major yield risks; continued moderate conditions could further raise supply forecasts.
🌐 Global Market Comparison
- Top Exporters: India, Nepal, Guatemala (small cardamom leader)
- India and Nepal expected to deliver higher output year-over-year; global stocks considered ample.
- Export demand remains soft in traditional markets (Middle East, Europe), keeping global prices in check.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Prices likely to remain range-bound between $15.20–$16.40 per kg (approx. €14.10–€15.20).
- Downside risk limited due to cost support, but upside capped by harvest arrivals and modest demand.
- Buyers may continue to purchase hand-to-mouth, with larger purchases recommended only if demand increases or arrivals drop earlier than expected.
- Monitor weather and crop reports for any changes in supply expectations—especially into late September and October.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges/Markets)
| Market | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi FOB (whole 7.5-8 mm) | 18.07 | 17.95–18.10 | Stable/Weak |
| New Delhi FOB (whole 6.0-6.5 mm) | 16.30 | 16.25–16.35 | Stable |
| New Delhi FOB (powder) | 24.85 | 24.75–24.85 | Neutral |
