The global cardamom market continues to face considerable headwinds, struggling with persistent downward pressure on prices as production surges while demand, particularly from export markets, remains tepid. Recent auctions reflect an environment where supply is outpacing demand. Notably, in Kerala—India’s key cardamom belt—heavy rainfall has fostered favorable growing conditions, boosting expectations of higher output. This has led to a notable increase in arrivals, with Puttady’s Spices Board auction recording 90,357 kg of cardamom, up from 77,777 kg in the prior session. However, even with increased volumes, prices have edged lower, underlining a lack of strong buying interest.
Export demand, typically bolstered by Middle Eastern bulk buyers at this time of year, remains subdued. As a result, bulk prices in USD have dropped from $36.75/kg peaks last year to a current range of $29.32–$30.65/kg, while European FOB prices remain on a similar downward trajectory. Producers, especially smallholders facing rising input costs, are growing concerned as margins come under pressure. While a gradual improvement in export activity is anticipated later in the year, the near-term outlook is weak, with no immediate catalysts for a significant price recovery in sight.
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Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
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Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
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Cardamom whole
green, 8 mm
FOB 24.12 €/kg
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📈 Prices
Type | Specification | Organic | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cardamom whole | green,7.5-8 mm | Yes | New Delhi | 17.94 | 18.01 | 2025-08-14 | Bearish |
Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm | Yes | New Delhi | 16.18 | 16.25 | 2025-08-14 | Bearish |
Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | No | New Delhi | 24.12 | 24.22 | 2025-08-14 | Bearish |
Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm | No | New Delhi | 21.93 | 22.02 | 2025-08-14 | Bearish |
Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm | No | New Delhi | 23.39 | 23.49 | 2025-08-14 | Bearish |
Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm | No | New Delhi | 20.98 | 21.07 | 2025-08-14 | Bearish |
Cardamom powder | – | Yes | New Delhi | 24.66 | 24.76 | 2025-08-14 | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Increased Arrivals: Kerala’s harvest is well above previous sessions, with arrivals up over 16% at Puttady auctions, intensifying supply-side pressure.
- Weak Export Demand: Reduced buying by Middle Eastern countries has resulted in sluggish export orders, with broader international demand also muted.
- Favorable Weather: Continued rainfall in major producing regions is supporting a strong crop outlook, keeping the market well-supplied.
- High Input Costs: Many small growers fear income declines due to softening prices as input costs remain high.
📊 Fundamentals & External Factors
- US Dollar Impact: Recent minor fluctuations in USD/EUR rates have not shielded European prices from the global bearish trend.
- Stock Levels: With higher arrivals, inventories at auction centres and cold storages are reported to be at healthy to high levels.
- Speculative Positioning: No significant speculative buying was reported; traders largely remain on the sidelines.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Kerala & Southern India: The current extended monsoon spell is forecast to persist over the next week, with above-average rainfall likely. Such weather promotes fruit set and enhances yields, suggesting strong arrivals will continue into the coming weeks.
- Potential Effects: Excess moisture may marginally increase disease risk, but so far, no major crop threats are reported.
📉 Production & Stock Comparison
Region/Country | 2024 Output (est.) | 2023 Output | Latest Stock Status |
---|---|---|---|
India | ~25,000 mt | 23,000 mt | High arrivals, ample stocks |
Guatemala | Similar to 2023 (~36,000 mt) | 36,000 mt | Steady, moderate stock levels |
Middle East (Importers) | – | – | Sluggish demand, high inventories |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bears in Control: Selling pressure is likely to continue with arrivals projected to remain high.
- Exporters should focus on gradual sales and closely monitor Middle Eastern demand revival signals.
- Buyers may find attractive pricing opportunities this month; spot and short-term contracts recommended for now.
- Farmers are advised to manage input costs and avoid panic selling. Storage may help shield against further volatility.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- India (New Delhi, FOB): EUR 16.00–18.00/kg (Sideways to slightly lower trend expected)
- Premium Grades (India): EUR 23.00–24.00/kg (Stable to slightly weaker)
- Export Market (USD): $29.20–$30.50/kg (Weakness, limited upside in near term)