Cardamom Market Update: Prices Steady but Pressured as Harvest Looms, Demand Lags

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The global cardamom market is currently navigating a phase marked by supply confidence and moderate demand, leading to sideways to slightly weaker price action. Over the past week, sentiment has been subdued as both North Indian buyers and major export destinations, including the Gulf region, have reduced their purchasing activity. Traders across spot markets like Siliguri and Gangtok report minimal fresh orders, with prices for large cardamom holding steady in a narrow range of USD 17,050 – 17,250 per ton. The anticipated arrival of new harvests from Sikkim and Darjeeling, buoyed by favorable weather forecasts, adds further downward pressure as buyers expect an improvement in yield and ample supply.

Despite expectations for a slightly larger 2025–26 crop in India (6,040 tons vs. 5,820 tons last season) and Bhutan’s continuing recovery, the lackluster demand from institutional and overseas buyers is preventing any significant upward momentum. Exporters note that shipments are slowed pending more conclusive production data. Overall, fundamentals suggest a well-supplied market, with limited potential for a substantial price rebound in the near term as caution dominates across the trade.

📈 Prices

Product Grade Origin Location Delivery Latest Price (EUR/kg) Weekly Change Sentiment
Cardamom whole Green, 7.5-8 mm, Organic IN New Delhi FOB 18.06 0% Neutral/Weak
Cardamom whole Green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99% Organic IN New Delhi FOB 16.30 0% Neutral/Weak
Cardamom whole Green, 8 mm IN New Delhi FOB 24.27 0% Neutral/Weak
Cardamom whole Green 7-7.2 mm IN New Delhi FOB 22.05 0% Neutral/Weak
Cardamom whole Green 7.5 mm IN New Delhi FOB 23.47 0% Neutral/Weak
Cardamom whole Green 6.5-6.8 mm IN New Delhi FOB 21.10 0% Neutral/Weak
Cardamom powder IN New Delhi FOB 24.80 0% Neutral/Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand

  • Supply: The Indian 2025–26 crop is projected at 6,040 tons (up from 5,820 tons in 2024–25). Bhutan’s supply is also reportedly recovering, further strengthening availability in regional markets.
  • Demand: North Indian and export (Gulf) demand remain weak. Institutional and bulk buyers are cautious, awaiting new crop arrivals and clearer production signals.
  • Spot Market: Prices at Siliguri and Gangtok mandis stayed steady, with limited trading volume reflecting the broader uncertainty.
  • Exports: Shipments have slowed dramatically amid trade hesitation and wait-and-see attitude among key buyers.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

  • Buyers expect further price declines with increased arrivals from a promising Sikkim and Darjeeling harvest.
  • Quality grades maintain pricing power, but the overall tone is subdued as institutional volumes are thin.
  • Exporters cite delayed orders until post-harvest output is confirmed in major producing regions.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Prospects

  • Sikkim & Darjeeling: Weather remains favorable, enhancing prospects for robust yields and timely harvests. No major weather disruptions are forecast for the next 10 days.
  • Impact: Likely to reinforce supply pressure and further suppress prices if arrivals match or exceed expectations.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country Latest Harvest Estimate (tons) YoY Change Stock Level Trend
India 6,040 +3.8% Stable to rising
Bhutan n/a (improved) Recovery Stable
Sri Lanka n/a n/a n/a

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

  • Hold positions – Short-term price spikes are unlikely given supply expectations and weak bulk demand.
  • Spot buying should be tactical; additional downside possible as new arrivals build through the season.
  • Exporters: Monitor shipment flows and exchange rates; delayed orders may return post-harvest clarity.
  • Watch the weather in Sikkim/Darjeeling for any late developments affecting harvest quality or timing.
  • Bargain buying of quality grades could be opportunistic for users with longer timelines.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location Current Price (USD/ton) Forecast Trend Comment
Siliguri (IN) 17,050–17,250 Steady to slightly weaker (-0.5%) Arrivals to rise; demand hesitant
Gangtok (IN) 17,050–17,250 Steady to slightly weaker (-0.5%) Harvest pressure looming
New Delhi (FOB) See EUR table Neutral Export pace modest, limited support