The global cardamom market is currently navigating a phase marked by supply confidence and moderate demand, leading to sideways to slightly weaker price action. Over the past week, sentiment has been subdued as both North Indian buyers and major export destinations, including the Gulf region, have reduced their purchasing activity. Traders across spot markets like Siliguri and Gangtok report minimal fresh orders, with prices for large cardamom holding steady in a narrow range of USD 17,050 – 17,250 per ton. The anticipated arrival of new harvests from Sikkim and Darjeeling, buoyed by favorable weather forecasts, adds further downward pressure as buyers expect an improvement in yield and ample supply.
Despite expectations for a slightly larger 2025–26 crop in India (6,040 tons vs. 5,820 tons last season) and Bhutan’s continuing recovery, the lackluster demand from institutional and overseas buyers is preventing any significant upward momentum. Exporters note that shipments are slowed pending more conclusive production data. Overall, fundamentals suggest a well-supplied market, with limited potential for a substantial price rebound in the near term as caution dominates across the trade.
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Cardamom whole
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📈 Prices
| Product | Grade | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | Green, 7.5-8 mm, Organic | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 18.06 | 0% | Neutral/Weak |
| Cardamom whole | Green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99% Organic | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 16.30 | 0% | Neutral/Weak |
| Cardamom whole | Green, 8 mm | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 24.27 | 0% | Neutral/Weak |
| Cardamom whole | Green 7-7.2 mm | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 22.05 | 0% | Neutral/Weak |
| Cardamom whole | Green 7.5 mm | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 23.47 | 0% | Neutral/Weak |
| Cardamom whole | Green 6.5-6.8 mm | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 21.10 | 0% | Neutral/Weak |
| Cardamom powder | – | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 24.80 | 0% | Neutral/Weak |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: The Indian 2025–26 crop is projected at 6,040 tons (up from 5,820 tons in 2024–25). Bhutan’s supply is also reportedly recovering, further strengthening availability in regional markets.
- Demand: North Indian and export (Gulf) demand remain weak. Institutional and bulk buyers are cautious, awaiting new crop arrivals and clearer production signals.
- Spot Market: Prices at Siliguri and Gangtok mandis stayed steady, with limited trading volume reflecting the broader uncertainty.
- Exports: Shipments have slowed dramatically amid trade hesitation and wait-and-see attitude among key buyers.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Buyers expect further price declines with increased arrivals from a promising Sikkim and Darjeeling harvest.
- Quality grades maintain pricing power, but the overall tone is subdued as institutional volumes are thin.
- Exporters cite delayed orders until post-harvest output is confirmed in major producing regions.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Prospects
- Sikkim & Darjeeling: Weather remains favorable, enhancing prospects for robust yields and timely harvests. No major weather disruptions are forecast for the next 10 days.
- Impact: Likely to reinforce supply pressure and further suppress prices if arrivals match or exceed expectations.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Latest Harvest Estimate (tons) | YoY Change | Stock Level Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 6,040 | +3.8% | Stable to rising |
| Bhutan | n/a (improved) | Recovery | Stable |
| Sri Lanka | n/a | n/a | n/a |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Hold positions – Short-term price spikes are unlikely given supply expectations and weak bulk demand.
- Spot buying should be tactical; additional downside possible as new arrivals build through the season.
- Exporters: Monitor shipment flows and exchange rates; delayed orders may return post-harvest clarity.
- Watch the weather in Sikkim/Darjeeling for any late developments affecting harvest quality or timing.
- Bargain buying of quality grades could be opportunistic for users with longer timelines.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Current Price (USD/ton) | Forecast Trend | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siliguri (IN) | 17,050–17,250 | Steady to slightly weaker (-0.5%) | Arrivals to rise; demand hesitant |
| Gangtok (IN) | 17,050–17,250 | Steady to slightly weaker (-0.5%) | Harvest pressure looming |
| New Delhi (FOB) | See EUR table | Neutral | Export pace modest, limited support |