The bulk of the 2021 cereal crops in Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) has been harvested and planting of the 2022 crops is already underway in several countries. The 2021 aggregate production of LIFDCs is pegged at 192 million tonnes, about 8 million tonnes more than the average, but nearly 5 million tonnes lower year on year, primarily reflecting output contractions in Near East Asian countries. Among Asian LIFDCs, the 2021 aggregate cereal production is forecast at a below-average level of 71,8 million tonnes, 7 percent down from the previous year’s outturn.
World cereal production (million tonnes)
| 2019 | 2020 estimate | 2021 forecast | Change: 2021 over 2020 (%) | |
| Asia | 1199.3 | 1226.9 | 1225.9 | -0.1 |
| Far East | 1092.7 | 1112.5 | 1135.7 | 2.1 |
| Near East | 73.4 | 78.9 | 58.8 | -25.5 |
| CIS in Asia | 33.2 | 35.5 | 31.4 | -11.6 |
| Africa | 191.3 | 202.5 | 209.4 | 3.4 |
| North Africa | 33.7 | 32.7 | 37.9 | 15.7 |
| West Africa | 65.7 | 67.1 | 68.3 | 1.8 |
| Central Africa | 7.1 | 6.9 | 7 | 0.8 |
| East Africa | 56.2 | 59.3 | 56.6 | -4.5 |
| Southern Africa | 28.6 | 36.5 | 39.7 | 8.7 |
| Central America and the Caribbean | 42.5 | 42.6 | 42.7 | 0.2 |
| South America | 228.4 | 232.9 | 224.9 | -3.5 |
| North America | 479.7 | 495.2 | 495.8 | 0.1 |
| Europe | 542.3 | 521.7 | 542.4 | 4 |
| European Union1 | 324.1 | 282.3 | 293.2 | 3.9 |
| CIS in Europe | 202.7 | 204.3 | 210.2 | 2.9 |
| Oceania | 28.6 | 50.2 | 50.2 | 0.1 |
| World | 2712.1 | 2772 | 2791.3 | 0.7 |
| Developing countries | 1652.7 | 1696.3 | 1694 | -0.1 |
| Developed countries | 1059.4 | 1075.7 | 1097 | 2 |
| – wheat | 760.2 | 776.5 | 769.6 | -0.9 |
| – coarse grains | 1448.9 | 1481.8 | 1503.3 | 1.4 |
| – rice (milled) | 502.9 | 513.7 | 518.4 | 0.9 |
Most of this decline is related to substantial production decreases in Afghanistan and the Syrian Arab Republic, owing to prolonged and significant rainfall deficits that reduced harvests. The challenging socio-economic situation in both countries also continued to undermine agricultural productive capacities. These low outputs, plus reduced harvests in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, offset the notable production increase in Bangladesh, where maize production reached a record high in 2021.
In Africa, aggregate cereal production among LIFDCs is estimated at 119.2 million tonnes in 2021, 8 percent above the average and marginally higher than the previous year’s output. The largest production increases in 2021 were estimated in Southern Africa, where cereal harvests in Malawi and Zimbabwe grew steeply to well above-average levels on high yields reflecting excellent weather conditions. In East Africa, with the main harvest underway, prospects are mixed. Erratic rainfall is expected to result in a reduced output in Kenya, while the conflict in northern parts of Ethiopia has resulted in substantial crop losses. Significant rainfall deficits in Somalia have sharply curtailed harvest expectations and a well below-average output is forecast in 2021. In West Africa, aggregate cereal production is forecast at a near-average level in 2021 and down on a yearly basis, on account of a poor distribution of rains and persisting conflicts that are likely to have reduced crop yields. In Central Africa, conflicts continued to impede agricultural activities and, consequently, cereal production is virtually unchanged on a yearly basis and at a near-average level.
Cereal production of LIFDCs (million tonnes)
| 5-year average | 2020 estimate | 2021 forecas | Change: 2021 over 2020 (%) | |
| Africa (36 countries) | 110.7 | 118.5 | 119.2 | 0.5 |
| East Africa | 55.1 | 59.3 | 56.6 | -4.5 |
| Southern Africa | 10.4 | 11.2 | 13.7 | 22.7 |
| West Africa | 38.2 | 41.1 | 41.9 | 1.7 |
| Central Africa | 7 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 0.8 |
| Asia (9 countries) | 72.1 | 77.2 | 71.8 | -6.9 |
| CIS in Asia | 10.4 | 10.3 | 9.2 | -11.2 |
| Far East | 52.8 | 55.2 | 56.5 | 2.3 |
| Near East | 8.9 | 11.6 | 6.2 | -46.7 |
| Central America and the Caribbean (2 countries) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | -0.9 |
| LIFDCs (47 countries) | 183.9 | 196.7 | 192 | -2.4 |
Source: fao.org
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