China's Soybean Market Outlook for 2024/25: Imports Remain Stable, Domestic Production Declines

China’s Soybean Market Outlook for 2024/25: Imports Remain Stable, Domestic Production Declines

Mintec Global
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Steady Soybean Imports

According to the latest projections, China’s soybean imports are expected to remain steady at 103 million tonnes in the 2024/25 period, aligning with the Agriculture Counsellor’s forecast for the previous year (2023/24). Despite various market dynamics, including shifts in global trade patterns and geopolitical tensions, this forecast suggests a consistent demand for soybeans in China’s agricultural sector.

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Domestic Production Challenges

On the domestic front, China faces challenges in soybean production. With approximately 9.95 million hectares sown, soybean output in 2024/25 is anticipated to decline to 19.6 million tonnes, compared to the previous year’s record-high of 20.84 million tonnes. Factors contributing to this decline include fluctuating weather conditions, evolving agricultural policies, and market uncertainties.

Impact on Farmers and Exports

The decline in soybean prices throughout 2023/24 has posed challenges for Chinese farmers, resulting in lower sales revenues and reduced export volumes. This trend underscores the importance of price stability and market predictability for farmers, exporters, and stakeholders across the soybean value chain.

As China navigates the complexities of its soybean market, policymakers, industry players, and agricultural experts must collaborate to address production challenges, enhance market resilience, and ensure sustainable growth in the soybean sector. By fostering innovation, adopting best practices, and leveraging technological advancements, China can optimize its soybean production and strengthen its position in the global agricultural landscape.

Current Market Price in China for new crop soybean

Product

 Chinese Soybean

Type NON-GMO
Color Yellow
Purity 99.5 % Min
NON GMO
Package 25kg  Paper Bag
Loading 22Tons / 20GP
Conv. FOB Dalian USD 780-800/Mt – EURO 718-736/mt
Org.  FOB Dalian USD 840-870/Mt – EURO 773-800/mt