Chinese Raisins Hold Discount to Turkey as New Crop Policy Sets Global Floor

Chinese-origin raisins in Europe are trading slightly softer but broadly sideways, maintaining a noticeable discount to Turkish and Chilean grades despite Ankara’s new intervention floor. With Turkey’s TMO base price now in place and Indian values firm, the downside in EUR terms for standard sultanas looks limited, while Chinese exporters still need aggressive pricing to stay competitive. Raisin markets are entering peak Northern Hemisphere shipping season with a stable-to-firm undertone. Turkey has now confirmed 2026/27 sultana intervention prices via TMO, effectively setting a higher domestic floor and underpinning export offers even as lira weakness partly offsets the move. In India, Maharashtra’s market is mildly bullish on monsoon-related supply caution, while global trade data point to resilient demand and diversified buying interest. Chinese growers enjoy hot, dry weather in Xinjiang, supporting drying quality, but subdued domestic demand and earlier import weakness keep export flows focused on price-sensitive destinations. Overall, short-term price action looks more range-bound than directional.

Prices

All price indications below are approximate and converted to EUR.

In Turkey, recent market commentary indicates FOB sultana offers broadly in the EUR 2.15–2.40/kg band for key grades, with spot prices described as mostly sideways in euro terms. 【0search3】 The new TMO base purchase range of roughly 85–100 TRY/kg (announced 11 September) implies a higher domestic price floor than last season, limiting downside in export offers even if lira weakness continues. 【0search2】【0search10】

Indian mandi data from Karnataka show spot raisin prices near INR 20,100/quintal on 10 September, equivalent to roughly EUR 2.20–2.30/kg before quality and export basis adjustments, broadly consistent with firm New Delhi FOB quotes around the mid‑2 EUR/kg level. 【0search8】【0search4】 Against this backdrop, Chinese-origin product into Europe around EUR 1.7–2.2/kg retains a clear discount, supporting demand from value-focused buyers.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the bellwether for seedless sultanas. Harvest in core districts of Manisa is reported largely complete, with hot, dry weather aiding drying and colour; only some pockets such as Alaşehir are still finishing. 【0search10】【0search3】 The combination of an 80 TRY/kg TARIS advance price earlier in the month and now higher TMO base prices has disappointed growers but increases confidence in a price floor, encouraging measured selling rather than distress marketing. 【0search6】【0search11】

In India, early-September reports flag a "slightly firm" tone in major producing hubs in Maharashtra, with traders watching monsoon patterns, grape availability and quality for the next drying cycle. 【0search4】 Tight nearby export-grade supply and cautious farmer selling are supporting offer levels, although export competitiveness against Turkey and China will restrain aggressive hikes.

For China, official data earlier in 2026 show solid overall trade momentum with imports and exports both expanding, underlining that external demand remains broadly healthy. 【0search9】 Raisin-specific analysis from late 2025 suggested subdued domestic demand and declining imports but resilient export interest, particularly from the EU and UK as some buyers diversify away from sole reliance on Turkey. 【0search15】【0search14】 Current trade-intelligence snapshots for HS raisin codes confirm a wide global buyer base, with tens of thousands of shipments across more than 160 importing countries, highlighting diversified, structural demand. 【0search7】

Weather & Crop Conditions (China Focus)

The key Chinese raisin origin, Xinjiang (including Turpan and surrounding oasis areas), is experiencing hot, dry conditions supportive of late-season grape drying. Recent three-day forecasts show daytime highs commonly above 30°C in major cities such as Turpan, Hami and Kashgar, with limited rainfall. 【0search5】 Such weather favours rapid, uniform dehydration in traditional drying yards, generally positive for colour and shelf-life if managed carefully.

National forecasts highlight more unsettled, rainy conditions mainly in southwestern and plateau regions, but this pattern does not directly affect Xinjiang’s arid grape valleys. 【0search5】 Overall, no major weather-related threats to the remaining 2026 Chinese raisin crop are visible in the immediate 3–5 day horizon, implying stable supply expectations out of Xinjiang for now.

Fundamentals & Policy Signals

The most important recent policy development is Turkey’s new intervention pricing. TARIS had already signalled an 80 TRY/kg advance purchase price at the start of September, which muted expectations for a sharply lower producer floor. 【0search6】 TMO has now set higher base prices for seedless raisins and will begin purchasing from 15 September, having completed logistics and finance preparations. 【0search11】【0search2】 This combination effectively puts a strong floor under Turkish farmgate values for the 2026/27 season.

Because Turkey is the leading global sultana exporter, this floor transmits into the international price structure, especially for EU-bound product where Turkey typically holds around one-third of import value. 【0search3】 Chinese and Indian shippers therefore gain limited scope to push prices significantly lower in EUR terms without eroding margins, even if they can still exploit FX and freight advantages. For buyers, this means that current EUR 2.1–2.3/kg levels for mainstream grades increasingly look like a structural floor rather than a temporary dip.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Guidance

With harvest weather benign, policy floors now visible in Turkey and Indian prices firm, the raisin complex appears set for a period of range-bound trading with a mild upside bias, particularly if demand from Europe and Asia remains steady into the autumn baking season. Chinese-origin product is likely to remain the key discount origin, especially for price-sensitive blending and industrial uses.

• Buyers (EU/Asia): Consider securing Q4–Q1 cover on Chinese and Turkish sultanas while prices hover near policy-defined floors, focusing on standard type 8–10 grades around EUR 2.1–2.3/kg FOB/CIF equivalent. Upside risk stems from tighter Indian supply or any weather surprise.
• Chinese exporters: Maintain competitive EUR pricing versus Turkish offers but avoid undercutting policy floors excessively; highlight quality gains from favourable Xinjiang drying weather to justify small premiums on higher grades.
• Turkish and Indian sellers: Use the new TMO and TARIS floors plus firm Indian domestic tone to resist deep discounts. Prioritise nearby shipments and high‑quality lots, as buyers show preference for prompt, reliable supply over distant forward coverage for now.

3‑Day Directional Price View (EUR)

• EU hub (Hamburg/Dordrecht, CN origin sultanas): Sideways to marginally firm over the next three days, with most trades expected within current EUR 1.7–2.2/kg FCA ranges.
• Turkey (Malatya/Manisa FOB): Sideways but well-supported; new TMO purchases starting mid‑September should anchor type 8–10 sultanas around the EUR 2.15–2.35/kg band.
• India (New Delhi FOB): Sideways to slightly firmer as Maharashtra markets hold a firm tone and monsoon-related supply uncertainty keeps exporters cautious.