Raisins Ride Festive Wave as India’s Dry Fruit Inflation Bites

Indian festive demand is lifting raisins into a firmer price environment, but gains remain modest compared with the sharp rallies in pistachios and almonds. Raisin prices in India are reported 2–5% higher than last festive season, with traders facing higher import, freight and currency costs but still prioritising pistachios and almonds in price increases. As Diwali buying accelerates, raisins are pulled higher as a secondary beneficiary of tightness in the broader nuts and dry fruit complex. Supply disruptions from Iran and Afghanistan, costlier freight on Middle Eastern lanes and a weaker rupee are tightening the cost base for importers. At the same time, robust retail and gifting demand is keeping Indian buyers active despite record prices in premium nuts. Against this backdrop, global raisin quotations in key origins such as Türkiye and India are broadly steady to slightly firmer, while some European positions show mild easing as nearby coverage improves.

Prices

Within India’s dry fruit basket, raisins show comparatively moderate inflation: traders report 2–5% year-on-year increases into the 2026 festive season, against up to 70% for the overall category and 60–70% for in-shell pistachios. This indicates that, while raisins are under upward pressure, they remain a relatively affordable filler in gift packs and sweet manufacturing compared with almonds and pistachios.

Export and import quotations in EUR confirm a generally firm but not explosive market. In Türkiye, a key supplier of seedless sultanas to global buyers, Malatya quotations on 7 October 2026 show stable levels: sultanas type 9 grade RTU at 2.20 EUR/kg CIF, type 9 grade A at 2.075 EUR/kg FOB, and type 10 grade A at 2.275 EUR/kg FOB. Organic sultanas type 9 grade A are indicated at 3.10 EUR/kg FOB. In India, FOB New Delhi quotes for food-grade raisins are modestly higher than feed grades and largely stable into October.

Supply & Demand

India’s raisins sit within a broader dry fruit market where supply shocks and logistics costs are dominating. Reduced GST on nuts from 12% to 5% in 2025 has not offset escalating international procurement and freight costs, particularly for origins in Iran and Afghanistan. These disruptions primarily affect pistachios and dates, but also spill over to raisins through higher freight rates and tighter availability in some Middle Eastern flows.

Domestically, India’s festive cycle creates a pronounced seasonal draw on raisin stocks. Recent mandi data show active arrivals and elevated wholesale prices in key producing and trading hubs such as Tasgaon and Sangli, with strong inflows ahead of Diwali confirming vigorous demand rather than supply collapse.   At the same time, global balance sheets point to somewhat lower 2025/26 raisin production in several major origins, including India and Türkiye, compared with the previous year, reducing surplus stocks available to cushion demand surges.  

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, raisins benefit from being a lower-cost component in mixed dry fruit packs. With pistachio and almond prices reaching record highs, packers and sweet manufacturers are inclined to keep or slightly increase the share of raisins to manage overall cost per kilo. Market participants in India highlight that almost all nuts and dry fruits are near all-time highs this year, but raisins have not risen as steeply as premium nuts.  

On the production side, 2025/26 seedless grape crops in Türkiye, India and Iran are generally described as adequate but below some earlier expectations, with quality acceptable yet less surplus for aggressive discounting. Weather risks are now shifting from Northern Hemisphere harvest completion toward storage and logistics: the immediate 3–5 day outlook in major Turkish raisin regions is seasonally mild with limited rain, implying low short-term risk to stored stocks and inland transport.  

Forecast & Trading Outlook

Into the Diwali peak and early winter, the raisin market is expected to remain firm to slightly higher, driven mainly by Indian festival demand and by spillover sentiment from tight pistachio and almond markets. Once festive demand tapers and shipping bottlenecks ease, some stabilisation is likely, especially if new-crop arrivals in other hemispheres (e.g. Chile, South Africa) proceed smoothly.

• Importers into India: Maintain covered positions through the Diwali window; consider incremental buying on any dips as underlying demand remains resilient and currency plus freight risks skew to the upside.
• European buyers: With FCA Dordrecht sultanas and mixed origins near recent highs but no longer accelerating, stagger purchases rather than front-loading, while monitoring India-driven pull on Turkish supply.
• Food manufacturers and packers: Use raisins strategically to offset record-high pistachio and almond costs in blends and formulations, locking in volumes before potential year-end restocking from retail chains.

3-Day Price Indications & Direction

• Türkiye (Malatya, FOB/CIF): Sultanas quotations around 2.075–2.275 EUR/kg FOB and 2.20 EUR/kg CIF are expected to stay broadly stable over the next three days, with an upward bias if additional Indian buying emerges.
• India (New Delhi, FOB): Food-grade raisins at 1.95–2.58 EUR/kg are likely to remain firm amid continuing festive enquiries and limited price relief from freight or currency.
• Northwest Europe (FCA hubs): Mixed-origin raisins and sultanas are seen trading in a narrow band, with a slightly softer tone in lower grades as nearby coverage is largely in place, while higher-quality sultanas remain underpinned by Turkish and Indian fundamentals.