Indian Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Demand Softens Ahead of Festive Peak

Indian raisin export prices are broadly steady, with only a marginal uptick in Malayar bird‑feed grade, while domestic mandi rates show flat-to-firm levels despite softer demand. Weather in key grape–raisin belts remains favourable and dry, limiting any immediate supply shock. Overall, the market is in a pause phase, with buyers selective but no sign yet of aggressive discounting. Indian raisin trade is entering the critical late-September transition when festive demand typically starts to build from existing cold‑storage stocks rather than fresh supply. Wholesale mandi data show stable to slightly firm prices across Karnataka and Maharashtra, even as local reports highlight slower offtake and cautious purchasing by traders. In parallel, export-grade FOB offers ex-New Delhi for golden, brown and black raisins are unchanged, signalling balanced export demand. Steady, mostly dry weather in Nashik and Sangli supports normal storage and handling conditions without adding quality risk.

Prices

FOB New Delhi export prices from India are stable week-on-week for table-grade raisins, while bird-feed material has edged slightly higher:

Domestic wholesale mandi indications mirror this stability: recent reports put Indian raisin prices broadly in a band of about INR 250–370/kg depending on grade, with individual markets like Bangalore around INR 595/kg at auction. This aligns with the unchanged euro-denominated FOB offers for higher grades out of New Delhi.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, India’s 2026 raisin availability is effectively fixed, as the crop is produced in a single February–April window concentrated in the Sangli–Tasgaon belt, then sold from cold storage for the rest of the year. With no fresh arrivals now, current offers mainly reflect how aggressively stockists are willing to release inventory ahead of the peak festival period.

Domestic reports indicate that demand in late September is somewhat subdued, yet prices are “holding” rather than easing, suggesting that stockists are comfortable with carry and are not forced sellers. Internationally, Turkish sultana exports remain a key benchmark, but recent trade data show softer global volumes and mixed demand, creating limited external pressure to either sharply raise or cut Indian offers.

Weather & Quality Outlook (Key Indian Regions)

Weather in the Nashik grape–raisin corridor is currently benign. IMD’s city forecast for Nasik shows partly cloudy skies with no significant rainfall and maximum temperatures around 33–34°C from 25–30 September, with no warnings in force. This supports stable conditions for stored raisins and minimizes risk of moisture-related quality issues during handling and transport.

In Sangli–Tasgaon, extended forecasts for late September indicate warm, seasonally typical conditions with highs near 30–32°C (mid-80s to low-90s°F) and no major rainfall spikes. Overall, current weather patterns are neutral to slightly supportive for raisin quality, with no evident trigger for short-term supply disruptions from the Indian belt.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Inventory-driven market: With no fresh crop until early 2027, the market is trading known stocks; post-April price moves are driven by stock drawdown, cold storage costs and grade availability rather than production surprises.
• Soft but steady domestic demand: Local reports highlight weaker buying interest but also note that prices remain firm, reflecting cautious but orderly trade activity rather than a demand shock.
• Global backdrop: Turkey remains the dominant sultana exporter, yet recent months have seen lower shipment volumes and a wait‑and‑see stance after an advance price announcement disappointed growers. This reduces immediate competitive pressure on Indian FOB offers.
• Grade spreads: Reports from Indian trade sources note that weather during drying mainly affects premium grades, widening the gap between top and lower qualities. The current stable euro prices for golden AA versus black and brown AA suggest these spreads are already embedded in offers.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Exporters (India, origin IN): With golden, brown and black AA FOB New Delhi prices flat and global demand not accelerating, consider maintaining offer levels while prioritizing prompt shipments to quality-sensitive markets. Moderate discounts may be needed only for slower-moving grades or larger lots.
• Importers / Roasters & Blenders: Current Indian FOB levels around 1.92–2.55 EUR/kg for AA grades offer price certainty. Buyers needing Q4 coverage can judiciously lengthen positions now, as there is limited downside without a domestic demand shock, and festive demand could tighten stocks.
• Feed and industrial users: The recent small rise in Malayar bird‑feed grade to 1.03 EUR/kg suggests bottoming in the lowest segment. Users should secure near‑term needs but avoid over‑buying in case demand in the feed channel stays tepid.

3‑Day Directional View – India‑Linked Raisin Prices

• New Delhi FOB, export grades (golden, brown, black AA): Bias: Sideways. Stable euro offers and calm global trade suggest little movement over the next three days.
• New Delhi FOB, Malayar bird‑feed grade: Bias: Slightly firmer after the latest uptick, but further gains likely limited unless domestic feed demand improves.
• Domestic Indian mandis (Sangli, Nashik belt): Bias: Sideways to mildly firm as stockists test festive‑season pricing while demand remains cautious but not collapsing.