Indian Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Domestic Mandis Tighten

Indian FOB raisin prices are broadly steady, with only bird‑feed Malayar slightly softer, while domestic mandi rates in Maharashtra continue to firm on tighter near‑term availability and renewed rain risks in key grape–raisin districts. Indian raisin export offers from New Delhi remain unchanged for key table grades, signalling a balanced international market even as internal spot prices in Maharashtra mandis climb. Recent mandi data show higher median dry grape prices across major markets such as Sangli, reflecting strong local demand and cautious selling by growers heading into the late monsoon period. At the same time, IMD forecasts renewed thunderstorms and light to moderate rain over parts of Maharashtra through 23 September, a factor that could temporarily disrupt drying activities where early batches of grapes are being processed into raisins. Against this backdrop, exporters see little immediate room for discounting, while buyers may look to secure volumes ahead of any weather‑related quality or logistics issues.

Prices

Export prices ex New Delhi are stable across most edible grades. As of 18–19 September 2026, offers stand at:

• Raisins golden, grade AA, origin IN, New Delhi, 2.55 EUR/kg FOB (unchanged versus previous quote).
• Raisins brown, grade AA, origin IN, New Delhi, 1.97 EUR/kg FOB (unchanged).
• Raisins black, grade AA, origin IN, New Delhi, 1.92 EUR/kg FOB (unchanged).
• Raisins Malayar, bird feed grade, origin IN, New Delhi, 1.01 EUR/kg FOB (marginally lower from 1.03 EUR/kg on 27 August).

These levels match the latest export price update indicating flat FOB New Delhi quotes on 18 September for golden, brown and black grades, with only bird‑feed quality showing slight easing.

In contrast, domestic wholesale markets are firmer. National dry grape (raisin) prices reported on 18–19 September show modal values in the low‑to‑mid ₹20,000s per quintal, with Sangli in Maharashtra – a core raisin hub – posting a ₹27,300/quintal modal price on 19 September, above the all‑India median reported two days earlier. This divergence underscores growing tightness in local supply even as export offers in EUR remain steady.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, India remains both a major producer and a net exporter of raisins, with Maharashtra’s Sangli and Nashik belts central to processing. Recent years have seen grape production exposed to untimely rainfall and disease pressure, and while these are structural issues rather than immediate shocks, they keep growers cautious about forward commitments.

Current mandi data suggest domestic demand is absorbing available stock briskly. Higher modal prices in Maharashtra, combined with thin reporting from other states, indicate that traders are willing to pay up for quality lots, particularly as festival‑season demand begins to build. Export demand appears steady rather than exuberant, with no evidence of aggressive buying or panic covering in the last few days.

Internationally, alternative origins such as Turkey, China and Chile continue to offer competitive raisins into Europe, but there are no fresh, short‑term disruptions reported this week. As a result, Indian FOB prices are anchored by a mix of consistent foreign interest and rising domestic opportunity costs, rather than by any sudden global supply shock.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India focus)

Weather is again becoming a watchpoint for raisin producers. IMD’s latest regional forecast highlights thunderstorms, lightning and light to moderate rain across parts of Maharashtra between 19 and 23 September, following a relatively dry spell in some districts. Local bulletins for grape‑growing areas like Beed show afternoon or evening thundershowers with gusty winds around 30–40 km/h on 20 September.

For vineyards preparing for drying, such intermittent rainfall raises short‑term risks: higher humidity can slow dehydration, increase mould pressure and complicate open‑yard drying operations. Earlier policy and research commentary has already flagged that unseasonal rains during ripening and drying periods have damaged grape and raisin quality in multiple recent seasons. While the current forecast does not yet point to extreme events, traders are monitoring whether showers persist into late September, which would support firmer domestic differentials for well‑dried, high‑grade stock.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Domestic vs export spread: Firming mandi prices in Maharashtra versus flat EUR‑denominated FOB offers signal a narrowing margin for exporters, especially for standard edible grades.
• Stock position: There is no evidence of heavy pipeline stocks; instead, trade reports imply cautious selling and a desire to see how late‑monsoon weather evolves before committing large volumes at current prices.
• Macro trade context: India’s broader merchandise exports have picked up in recent months, but the latest chatter focuses on engineering and electronics rather than agro‑products; no direct policy change has been flagged around raisins in the past three days.
• Quality risk premium: Given IMD’s below‑normal seasonal rainfall guidance earlier in the year and episodes of erratic showers, buyers remain sensitive to quality specifications and may pay a premium for uniform colour and low defects.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

Trading recommendations (short horizon, India‑focused):

• Exporters: With FOB New Delhi levels for golden, brown and black grades stable and domestic mandis firming, hold offers near current EUR levels; avoid pre‑emptive discounting until the impact of this week’s rains on drying and quality becomes clearer.
• Importers/overseas buyers: For nearby shipments, consider covering at least part of Q4 needs now, particularly for golden grade AA at 2.55 EUR/kg FOB New Delhi, to hedge against potential late‑monsoon quality issues that could tighten premium supply.
• Domestic buyers (processors, packers): Use any brief dips in local mandi arrivals during rainy days to negotiate, but be prepared for continued firmness in high‑quality lots as festival‑related demand builds through October.

3‑day directional outlook (20–22 September 2026, India):

• FOB New Delhi (export grades): Golden, brown and black grade AA raisins are expected to remain stable around current EUR/kg levels, with a mild upward bias if domestic firmness persists.
• Domestic mandis in Maharashtra (dry grapes/raisins): Prices in key markets such as Sangli are likely to stay firm to slightly higher, supported by strong modal levels and potential weather‑related disruptions to drying and arrivals.
• Feed‑grade Malayar: After a small recent softening to 1.01 EUR/kg FOB New Delhi, this segment is expected to trade sideways, tracking broader feed and low‑spec demand rather than premium table‑grade dynamics.