Indian Raisins Edge Higher While Afghan Feed Grades Ease in Europe

Indian FOB raisin prices are grinding higher into October, while Afghan feed-grade material in Europe is softening, leaving a modestly firm overall tone but with clear grade and origin spreads. Indian kismis is moving into the key September–October drawdown phase, with festival demand, cold‑storage costs and finite 2025/26 supply driving small but broad-based gains. Afghanistan’s 2025/26 crop is recovering from last season’s low output, but current hot, dry weather in Herat keeps drying conditions favourable and prevents any late quality squeeze.

Prices

• Indian New Delhi FOB prices for food-grade raisins are up EUR 0.03–0.02 week on week, reflecting stronger local and export demand into the festival window and higher holding costs.
• Afghan-origin brown feed raisins FCA Dordrecht are down EUR 0.05, highlighting ample lower-grade supply and limited short-term feed demand in Europe.
• The premium of Indian golden AA over Afghan feed is wide, underscoring strong packer demand for consistent, clean product versus pressure on off-grade parcels.

Supply & Demand – India and Afghanistan Focus

India’s 2025/26 raisin supply is effectively fixed after the February–April drying window in Maharashtra’s Sangli/Tasgaon belt, with the market now trading cold‑stored inventory rather than fresh arrivals. Industry commentary stresses that prices from May onward mainly reflect drawdown pace, cold‑storage and financing costs, crop quality and festival demand rather than new supply, with rates typically firming from September into the festive season.

Global balance sheets show India’s raisin production falling from about 245,000 tons in 2024/25 to 160,000 tons in 2025/26, reducing total supply and trimming projected ending stocks sharply. This tighter Indian balance underpins current FOB firmness despite comfortable stocks in some grades. Demand is supported by domestic confectionery, bakery and sweet-makers ahead of October religious and wedding-season peaks, while export flows to the Middle East and South Asia remain resilient according to recent Indian trade data tools.

Afghanistan, by contrast, is recovering from a lower 2024/25 crop, with international estimates lifting 2025/26 raisin production from around 12,000 tons to 20,000 tons and total supply to roughly 21,000 tons. This additional availability, combined with structurally lower Afghan export prices versus competing origins, is feeding into European feed- and industrial-grade segments and contributing to the recent FCA declines in Dordrecht.

Weather Outlook – AF & IN Raisin Regions

In Herat, a key Afghan raisin-producing province, current conditions are hot and very dry. Forecasts for October 3–6 indicate sunny skies with daytime highs around 34–36°C and no meaningful precipitation, keeping field and rooftop drying conditions excellent and minimising late-season spoilage risk.

In India, Maharashtra’s main grape and raisin districts (including Satara and the broader belt referenced by national and travel-weather services) face typical early-October warmth with scattered showers. A 10‑day forecast for Satara points to temperatures in the high twenties to low thirties Celsius and only intermittent rainfall, while the India Meteorological Department shows no significant weather warnings for the Vidarbha subdivision over October 3–9. As the 2025/26 crop was already dried months ago, these conditions mainly affect vineyard work and preparation for the next harvest rather than current raisin availability.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• India – tight but orderly drawdown: With a smaller 2025/26 crop and known stock position, price action now reflects how quickly traders and packers lift material from cold storage. Seasonal analysis shows that rates usually firm from September as storage costs accumulate and festive demand ramps up.
• Afghanistan – recovery and grade mix: Expanded 2025/26 Afghan output adds volume at the lower end of the quality and price spectrum. Combined with the country’s structural discount versus Turkey, Iran and India, this is weighing particularly on feed and industrial grades, reflected in the softer FCA Dordrecht quotation for Afghan brown feed raisins.
• Trade flows: India remains a leading global supplier, with official trade statistics systems confirming sustained export activity through mid‑2026. Afghanistan’s exports, channelled through numerous processing plants and corridors into India and the Gulf, continue to target value-conscious buyers willing to accept more variable quality.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• India (food-grade, New Delhi FOB): With festival demand intensifying and a smaller 2025/26 supply base, near-term bias is mildly bullish. Buyers with Q4 needs should consider covering a portion of requirements now to hedge against further incremental increases and potential freight-tightening around mid‑October trade events.
• Afghanistan (feed-grade, FCA Dordrecht): Higher 2025/26 Afghan output and benign weather favour continued availability of feed-grade raisins. Nearby tone is slightly soft, and feed formulators can afford to scale into purchases, exploiting the discount to food-grade origins.
• Spread strategies: The wide gap between Indian golden AA FOB and Afghan brown feed FCA supports grade-spread strategies for packers able to blend origins, but quality and traceability requirements limit this to more flexible industrial users.

3‑day directional view (Oct 3–5, 2026):

• IN New Delhi, FOB (golden/brown/black AA): Prices are expected to remain firm with an upward bias, but daily moves are likely to stay incremental given already recent increases and orderly buying.
• AF origin, FCA Dordrecht (brown feed): Prices are likely to stay under mild downward to sideways pressure as European buyers test the market and Afghan supply remains readily available.