Raisins: Rising Turkish Exports but Softer Prices as Quality Gap Widens

Turkish raisin exports are accelerating at the start of the new season, yet farm‑gate and export prices are under pressure as state procurement disappoints growers and buyers exploit quality and liquidity tensions. Export demand is clearly present – weekly volumes are now well above last year – but the way this demand is being met is shifting power away from producers. With the TMO rejecting many deliveries and farmers forced to sell to merchants and exporters at discounts, raw material is flowing, though not at the prices growers hoped for. At the same time, residue concerns in competing origins and tighter European standards, especially in Germany, are creating a structural quality premium for compliant Turkish raisins, offering medium‑term support even as spot prices soften.

Prices

Despite stronger exports, average raisin prices are trending lower as the new Turkish crop hits the market and procurement frictions weaken growers’ bargaining power.

• Official data show that in the week of 26 September, exports reached around 5,650 tons, up roughly 1,900 tons year-on-year, yet the average sales price continued to decline, indicating demand is price-sensitive rather than tight.
• Current Turkish quotations are broadly stable week-on-week but reflect the recent downtrend: Malatya sultanas, type 9, grade A, are indicated at EUR 2.075 FOB, type 8 grade A at EUR 2.05 FOB, and type 10 grade A at EUR 2.275 FOB (all Turkey, Malatya, 30 September, latest assessments).
• Ready-to-use Turkish sultanas, type 9, are valued around EUR 2.20 CIF Turkey (Malatya, latest quotation), while organic sultanas, type 9 grade A, hold a clear premium at EUR 3.10 FOB.
• Competing origins offer a wide range of price points: Chinese sultanas no. 9 grade AA are quoted at EUR 2.25 FCA Netherlands, Chilean flame jumbos at EUR 2.55 FCA Netherlands, and Indian raisins from about EUR 1.92–2.55 FOB New Delhi, depending on type and grade.

Supply & Demand

Fundamentally, the market is well supplied, but origin and quality segmentation are becoming more important for buyers.

• In Turkey, the TMO continues to intervene in the market, yet growers remain dissatisfied as a large share of deliveries is reportedly rejected on various quality grounds, forcing many farmers to turn to merchants or exporters at lower prices. This is effectively increasing spot availability to the trade.
• Exporters are capitalizing on the additional supply. Early-season Turkish sultana shipments have risen significantly compared with last year, with export volumes "in full swing" according to recent trade commentary.
• On the demand side, European buyers – particularly in Germany – are facing stricter residue standards. At the same time, controlling pesticide residues has proven difficult for several rival origins.
• This divergence in compliance is shifting medium-term demand toward Turkish product, especially for food-grade and retail segments where residues are closely monitored.

Fundamentals & Quality

The key structural driver this season is not volume, but quality and residue compliance.

• Turkish raisins are expected to gain a competitive edge as residue management issues in other origins collide with tightening MRL enforcement in core import markets. Germany is at the forefront of this trend with particularly strict controls.
• For Turkish exporters who can consistently meet these requirements, this environment supports stronger forward demand and may underpin premiums for fully compliant, well-documented lots even as headline averages move lower.
• In contrast, origins facing repeated residue problems are likely to be pushed into lower-price industrial or feed channels, or face higher rejection and reconditioning costs.
• Within Turkey, quality sorting by TMO and by private buyers is effectively splitting the crop into two streams: higher-quality, residue-compliant raisins destined for premium export customers and downgraded product sold at significant discounts.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Weather is no longer a major driver for the 2026/27 Turkish sultana crop, but it shapes harvest logistics and late decisions.

• Production in the main Manisa region is now officially completed; only growers who decided later to dry their grapes are still affected by the current more autumnal pattern.
• For early October, forecasts indicate mild autumn conditions with 23–25°C daytime highs and cooler nights, sometimes with clouds and showers.
• These conditions have little impact on already-dried fruit but may slightly slow the drying of any late-laid grapes and increase the need for careful handling to maintain quality.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

Near-term, the raisin market is shaped by the tug-of-war between ample supply, state intervention, and a gradually widening quality gap between origins.

• For buyers: Use current price softness to extend coverage in high-compliance Turkish grades, especially for markets with strict MRL regimes. Prioritize suppliers with robust residue monitoring and full documentation, as these lots are most likely to see renewed price support later in the season.
• For Turkish growers: Where possible, improve sorting and documentation to reduce TMO rejections and to qualify for direct export channels. Engaging with exporters on quality and residue protocols can help recover part of the value lost through discounted spot sales.
• For traders: Monitor the spread between Turkish compliant product and lower-grade or residue-risk origins. The current discount on farmer sales offers margin opportunities, but downside for inferior grades remains, particularly if further residue incidents are reported in the EU.

3‑Day Price Indications & Direction