Raisin Market: Strong Turkish Supply Meets Depressed Prices

Turkish raisin supply looks ample at around 300,000 tons including carry-over, yet producer prices remain below expectations as export offers continue to edge lower. Aggressive pricing is supporting a sharp pick-up in exports and keeping Turkey highly competitive against rival origins. The new season is taking shape with an estimated 270,000 tons of harvest and comfortable stocks, providing buyers with good availability but putting growers under margin pressure. TMO has started buying, but appointment bottlenecks mean the intervention is not fully absorbing market surplus so far. Meanwhile, weekly exports around 4,600 tons, up significantly year-on-year, confirm that lower prices are unlocking demand. Against this backdrop, global quotes show mixed but mostly stable moves, with Chinese product retaining a discount and Indian grades remaining comparatively firm.

Prices

Export prices from Turkey continue to decline from growers’ perspective, even as they stimulate stronger overseas demand. Despite the recent announcement of TMO intervention levels in lira, many producers report that market prices in euro terms are still below desired thresholds and not fully reflecting rising production costs.

Current spot quotations illustrate a two-tier market. Turkish sultanas type 9, grade A, are indicated around EUR 2.15/kg FOB Malatya and EUR 2.35/kg for type 10 grade A FOB, while CIF offers for type 9 RTU stand near EUR 2.20/kg into Turkey. In contrast, Chinese sultanas, type 9 RTU, are quoted at EUR 1.744/kg FCA Hamburg, underlining China’s price discount in European destinations. Indian golden raisins grade AA hover around EUR 2.55/kg FOB New Delhi, with brown and black AA grades at EUR 1.97/kg and EUR 1.92/kg FOB respectively, signalling relatively firm Indian values.

Supply & Demand

The Turkish seedless raisin harvest is now estimated around 270,000 tons, with total availability including carry-over stocks approaching 300,000 tons. This ample supply is the core driver of current price weakness, as growers struggle to sell sufficient volumes at remunerative levels. TMO has begun intervention purchases, but logistical and appointment constraints mean many farmers are still waiting to deliver fruit, prolonging downward pressure in free-market trade.

On the demand side, export performance is robust. Weekly exports of about 4,600 tons in the week of 19 September represent an increase of roughly 2,350 tons versus the same week last year, pointing to a strong response from international buyers to lower export prices. Combined with China’s continued discount into Europe and firm Indian quotes, this positions Turkey in the middle of the global price spectrum but with a distinct edge in terms of availability and shipment pace.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is caught between high physical supply and policy support. The recently announced TMO purchase prices in the 85–100 TRY/kg range for seedless raisins establish a domestic floor that should gradually curb further downside. However, implementation frictions are delaying the full stabilising effect, and exporters continue to use competitive euro offers to clear stocks and secure market share.

Weather in key Turkish producing regions has turned less critical as harvest nears completion, with no major late-season disruptions reported in the latest public updates. With crop size now largely known, near-term price action will be driven more by the pace of TMO receipts, export flows, and currency moves than by agronomic factors. The sizeable carry-over underscores that any demand shock could quickly weigh on prices unless intervention buying accelerates.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

In the short term, the combination of comfortable Turkish supply and active export demand suggests a sideways to slightly firm bias for competitively priced grades, especially once TMO purchasing gathers momentum. Yet producer margins are likely to remain squeezed as euro-denominated export prices lag growers’ expectations and cost inflation.

• Industrial buyers / packers: Consider advancing cover for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 on Turkish sultanas while export prices remain under pressure, prioritising standard type 9 and 10 grades that benefit most from TMO’s price floor.
• Importers in Europe: Diversify between discounted Chinese product for value segments and Turkish or Indian raisins for higher-quality applications, locking in spreads while China maintains a clear price advantage.
• Producers in Turkey: Monitor TMO appointment availability closely and avoid panic selling into a weak spot market where possible; structured sales aligned with TMO intake and export tenders may yield better net returns.

3-Day Directional View (Key Exchanges)

• Turkey (Malatya, FOB sultanas): Mostly stable with a mild firming tendency as TMO purchases gradually absorb supply and export interest remains strong.
• EU (Hamburg/Dordrecht, FCA mixed origins): Sideways to slightly softer for Chinese and feed-grade raisins amid ongoing competition; higher grades expected to hold steady.
• India (New Delhi, FOB raisins): Stable; limited immediate downside seen given relatively firm local valuations and steady export interest.