Raisin prices reset lower as Turkey’s exports accelerate

Export-driven momentum is returning to the raisin market as sharply lower Turkish prices unlock demand and push weekly shipments well above last year. At the same time, active TMO purchasing and recently released grower payments are providing a floor for farmgate sentiment, limiting immediate downside despite the price reset. The market is transitioning from two years of relatively high, demand‑constraining price levels to a more competitive environment. Turkish exporters are regaining market share on the back of a roughly one‑third cut in export prices, while TMO absorption of physical stocks and improved grower liquidity are stabilizing internal flows. Buyers now face a window of favorable pricing, but should also account for the risk that sustained export strength gradually tightens available supplies later in the season.

Prices

After two seasons around USD 3,000/ton, Turkish export prices have dropped to about USD 2,000/ton this year, a structural reset that has reignited buying interest. This price correction is clearly reflected in current quotations: in Malatya, Turkish sultanas type 9 grade RTU are indicated at 2.2 EUR/kg CIF, while sultanas type 9 grade A are at 2.075 EUR/kg FOB and type 8 grade A at 2.05 EUR/kg FOB. Organic sultanas type 9 grade A remain at a premium at 3.1 EUR/kg FOB, and higher‑grade type 10 sultanas trade around 2.275 EUR/kg FOB.

Outside Turkey, competition is mixed: in New Delhi, Indian golden raisins grade AA stand at 2.58 EUR/kg FOB, with brown and black AA around 1.99–1.95 EUR/kg FOB. In Northwest Europe (Dordrecht), Chilean flame jumbo raisins are quoted at 2.5 EUR/kg FCA, while Turkish RTU raisins in the Netherlands are at 2.9 EUR/kg FCA and Chinese standard sultanas at 2.2 EUR/kg FCA. Feed‑grade and bird‑feed raisins range closer to 1.03–1.92 EUR/kg depending on origin and delivery term, underlining a generally soft but differentiated price structure along the quality spectrum.

Supply & Demand

Supply‑side dynamics in Turkey are currently dominated by public buying. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has already purchased 32,000 tons of raisins, absorbing part of the new crop and anchoring producer expectations. Payments to growers who delivered product by September 15 have started, easing on‑farm cash constraints and reducing the pressure for distress selling at current lower price levels.

On the demand side, exports are clearly responding to the price incentive. Weekly raisin exports for the week of October 3 reached 4,900 tons, 1,150 tons above the same week last year, signaling a strong early‑season performance. This acceleration supports the view that previous high prices had eroded Turkey’s competitiveness, and that the current adjustment is enabling exporters to recapture demand from key markets. Globally, Turkey remains one of the central suppliers in a world raisin/sultana complex that has recently seen lower aggregate production compared with the prior year in several origins, increasing the importance of Turkish availability.

Fundamentals

The fundamental backdrop combines ample early physical availability with stronger export off‑take. TMO’s 32,000‑ton intake helps to smooth market flows by removing part of the crop from the open market, while still allowing exporters access to competitively priced raw material. The initiation of TMO payments is particularly relevant: improved farm liquidity reduces selling pressure and can curb further sharp price discounts, even as export offers remain well below the past two years’ levels.

At the same time, the sharp nominal drop from approximately USD 3,000 to USD 2,000/ton has materially improved value for importers. This is visible in stable to slightly lower EUR quotations for Turkish sultanas over recent weeks and relatively narrow spreads versus key competitors such as India and Chile. With weekly exports already outpacing last year, the risk profile is gradually shifting from price downside to potential tightening later in the marketing year if strong shipments persist and TMO continues to carry significant stocks.

Weather & Crop Outlook

No acute weather shock is currently reported for major Turkish raisin regions, and the new crop is moving steadily into commercial channels. With harvest largely completed, near‑term weather risk for the present crop is limited; the main focus now is on storage conditions and stock management rather than yield. Any future weather concerns would more likely affect the next season’s vine development rather than the current market balance.

Short‑Term Forecast & Trading View

• Price direction (Turkey): After a major downward reset, spot export prices are expected to move broadly sideways in the very short term, with only limited additional downside while TMO buying and grower payments underpin the domestic floor.
• Export flows: Weekly shipments running 1,150 tons above last year suggest continued robust demand; if maintained, this pace could gradually tighten free stocks in the second half of the season and cap any attempts at aggressive discounting.
• Importers/buyers: The current environment offers a favorable entry window to secure medium‑term coverage at significantly lower levels than the past two years; layering purchases over the coming weeks can hedge against both potential currency and supply‑tightening risks later.
• Producers/sellers: With TMO absorbing volume and providing liquidity, disciplined sales and quality differentiation (especially organic and higher grades) can help preserve margins at the new, lower price plateau.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Turkey – Malatya (FOB/CIF sultanas grades 8–10): Prices around 2.05–2.275 EUR/kg FOB and 2.2 EUR/kg CIF are expected to hold broadly steady over the next three days.
• India – New Delhi (FOB raisins, food grades): Quotations near 1.95–2.58 EUR/kg FOB are likely to remain stable to slightly firm, reflecting competitive but not aggressive pricing versus Turkish offers.
• Northwest Europe – Dordrecht/Hamburg (FCA mixed origins): European warehouse prices between roughly 1.92 and 2.9 EUR/kg FCA should stay mostly unchanged in the very short term, with minor adjustments driven by freight and local demand rather than origin‑side shocks.