Raisin Prices Flat but Diverging by Origin as Turkey Softens and India Holds Firm

Indian and Turkish raisin prices are broadly stable to slightly softer, while Chinese and Chilean offers remain in a competitive band and Afghan feed‑grade material trades flat in Europe. Tightened domestic supplies and firm mandi prices in Maharashtra support Indian FOB levels, whereas early Turkish sultana selling and state procurement frame a mildly softer, buyer‑friendly tone. The global raisin market is currently balanced, with no major weather shock in key origins but several local risk factors. In India, wholesale dry grape prices in Maharashtra mandis remain elevated, underpinned by steady demand and cautious farmer selling into the late monsoon. Turkish exporters are working into the new crop with state buying from TMO setting a floor but not igniting a rally. Afghan exporters face logistics headwinds, shifting part of the crop toward low‑priced drying and feed channels, while Chile and China sit between seasons, focusing on the upcoming southern‑hemisphere spring.

Prices

Price indications in EUR remain unchanged versus the previous updates for most traded lines:

• India, New Delhi FOB: Raisins golden grade AA at EUR 2.55/kg, brown grade AA at EUR 1.97/kg, and black grade AA at EUR 1.92/kg (all unchanged versus 25 September).
• India, New Delhi FOB: Raisins Malayar bird‑feed grade at EUR 1.01/kg, slightly softer than mid‑September.
• Turkey, Malatya FOB: Sultanas type 8–10 grade A in a narrow EUR 2.05–2.275/kg band, marginally lower than early September; organic type 9 at EUR 3.10/kg, unchanged.
• Turkey, Malatya CIF: Sultanas type 9 grade RTU at EUR 2.20/kg, steady on the week.
• China, Xinjiang origin raisins (CN), FCA Hamburg/Dordrecht: standard sultanas type 9 at EUR 1.744–2.25/kg, fractionally firmer at the low end.
• Chile, flame jumbo raisins (CL), FCA Dordrecht: flat at EUR 2.55/kg.
• Afghanistan (AF) origin feed‑grade brown raisins, FCA Dordrecht: steady at EUR 1.97/kg.

Indian domestic dry grape mandis confirm the firm but non‑rallying tone: the median Indian wholesale raisin price stands near INR 21,175/quintal (about INR 212/kg), with Sangli, Maharashtra – a key raisin hub – posting a modal INR 29,350/quintal on 24 September, well above Karnataka’s INR 13,000/quintal low. This aligns with reports of steady Indian FOB offers and tightened local supply into the late monsoon period.

Supply & Demand Drivers (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)

India (IN)

Reports from Maharashtra indicate firm dry grape prices and limited near‑term availability as growers face continued monsoon humidity and show reluctance to sell aggressively before assessing quality. Export demand is described as steady rather than spectacular, but sufficient to absorb offers at current EUR levels.

With wholesale mandi valuations still comfortably above pre‑September levels, the incentive to discount FOB raisins is low, especially for better grades like golden and well‑sorted browns. Buyers looking for price relief are instead eyeing cheaper bird‑feed grades or alternative origins.

Turkey (TR)

Turkey has opened the 2026/27 Sultani seedless grape season in Manisa, and the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) began its new‑crop dried raisin intake from mid‑September at multiple collection points. This provides a reference floor for farmer prices but has not translated into a strong bullish move in export offers.

With exporters keen to restore competitiveness after previous high‑price seasons, Turkish sultana FOB prices have edged slightly lower from early‑September levels in Malatya, even as TMO intake supports producer sentiment. The market tone is described as well‑supplied but orderly, favouring volume business in standard type‑8/9 qualities.

China (CN)

China’s main raisin region in Turpan, Xinjiang, is transitioning between old‑ and new‑crop stocks. Earlier official analysis projects a modest decline in 2024/25 raisin output due to lower grape production, reinforcing China’s role as a disciplined, price‑sensitive exporter rather than an aggressive discounter.

Recent European warehouse pricing for Chinese sultanas around the mid‑EUR 1.7/kg FCA level keeps China competitive against Turkish and Indian offers, especially for industrial users prioritising cost over strict origin preferences. Slight firming at the low end suggests that the very cheapest Chinese parcels have been absorbed.

Chile (CL)

Chile is entering spring, with table‑grape vines in central regions exposed to forecasts of late frosts and residual weather volatility following earlier heavy rains. While current raisin shipments draw mainly on existing stocks, any damage to the upcoming grape crop could tighten Chilean raisin availability later in the season.

For now, Chilean flame jumbo raisins in Europe hold steady at EUR 2.55/kg, positioned as a premium alternative to standard sultanas from Turkey and China. Export calendars suggest that Chilean dried‑fruit flows typically strengthen from late winter into spring, so buyers are watching weather developments closely.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan remains structurally important in the global raisin trade, but recent reports highlight renewed pressure from disrupted export corridors, pushing some grape production toward basic sun‑drying and domestic or regional marketing. This helps explain why Afghan feed‑grade brown raisins in European hubs trade flat at modest levels.

Logistics constraints via traditional overland routes encourage Afghan sellers to favour nearby markets or lower‑value channels when premium export pathways are restricted, limiting the availability of high‑spec Afghan raisins but keeping a cap on feed‑grade prices.

Weather Snapshot (Next 3 Days)

• India (Maharashtra/North Karnataka): Models point to continued monsoon‑season humidity with scattered showers, sustaining quality risk for field‑drying but not implying a new acute shock.
• Turkey (Manisa/Malatya): Early‑autumn conditions, largely dry with mild temperatures after the main harvest phase; no significant rain threat flagged for the next few days in raisin heartlands.
• China (Turpan, Xinjiang): Post‑harvest drying benefits from typically dry continental conditions; no major rain disruptions are reported in the current window.
• Chile (Central regions): Forecasts continue to mention a risk of late frosts and weather variability in September, which bears monitoring for the new grape cycle.
• Afghanistan (Herat and western vineyards): Seasonally dry to mild conditions dominate; the more immediate constraint remains export‑route disruption rather than local weather.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• India: Firm domestic mandis and weather‑related caution underpin stable FOB prices at New Delhi for table‑grade raisins, while lower‑grade Malayar shows slight softness.
• Turkey: New‑crop sultanas move into TMO intake and export channels; ample supply and a policy‑supported floor result in mildly softer but orderly export pricing.
• China: Competitive FCA levels and constrained output keep China an attractive source for cost‑sensitive buyers, especially in the EU.
• Chile: Stock‑driven exports at steady prices; forward risk skewed to the upside if spring frosts cut the next grape crop.
• Afghanistan: Logistics bottlenecks, not production potential, are the main brake on export growth; this favours regional trade and feed‑grade flows.

Trading Outlook

• Food‑industry buyers (EU, MENA): Use current stability to extend cover modestly into Q4 2026 from Turkey and India, while keeping flexibility to switch into Chinese supply for cost optimisation if Turkish sultanas tighten later.
• Importers in South Asia and the Gulf: For premium golden and flame jumbos, consider scaling in at current Indian and Chilean levels; significant downside appears limited unless monsoon‑related quality issues trigger forced selling.
• Feed and bird‑grade segment: Afghan and Indian feed‑grade raisins offer value at present levels; buyers can remain selective, as logistics and quality variability may create opportunistic discounts.
• Risk watch: Monitor Chilean frost developments and any escalation in Afghan transit constraints, which could tighten specific origin spreads even if the overall market remains balanced.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction Only)

• IN – India FOB New Delhi: Sideways bias for table grades; slight downside risk limited to bird‑feed Malayar.
• TR – Turkey FOB/CIF Malatya: Mildly soft to sideways as new‑crop volumes flow and TMO intake tempers any sharp falls.
• CN – China FCA EU (Hamburg/Dordrecht): Sideways to slightly firmer at the low end as cheap parcels are absorbed.
• CL – Chile FCA Dordrecht: Sideways; any frost‑driven concerns would affect forward positions rather than spot in the coming three days.
• AF – Afghanistan origin FCA EU: Sideways, with logistics‑driven noise but no clear price trend shift expected in the very short term.