Raisin prices diverge as Afghan origin collapses while Turkish sultanas soften

Afghan raisin and fresh-fruit prices have slumped by 50–70% at origin as exports to India are choked by closed Pakistan land routes, while import markets see only limited relief and Turkish sultanas trade slightly softer but broadly range-bound. Afghanistan’s Kandahar-based raisin trade is caught in a severe logistics squeeze: growers face collapsing farmgate prices despite the arrival of new-season raisins, figs and golden abjosh, because road access to India via Pakistan remains restricted and air freight is uneconomic. At the same time, Indian and other import markets still experience relatively tight availability and higher logistics costs, not oversupply. In parallel, new-crop Turkish sultanas and competitive Chinese RTU offers anchor global reference prices, which are now edging modestly lower in FOB terms but remain well above distressed Afghan origin levels.

Prices

At Afghan origin, prices for dry fruits and fresh fruits in Kandahar have reportedly fallen by around 50–70%, with local grapes and pomegranates down 50–65% amid blocked export channels. New-season raisins, figs and golden abjosh are already arriving, but values remain below last year, reflecting oversupply at origin rather than weak demand downstream.

By contrast, benchmark Turkish sultanas show only mild easing. As of 22 September, Malatya offers stand at 2.20 EUR/kg CIF for sultanas type 9 grade RTU, 2.075 EUR/kg FOB for type 9 grade A, 2.05 EUR/kg FOB for type 8 grade A, and 2.275 EUR/kg FOB for type 10 grade A, with organic type 9 grade A steady at 3.10 EUR/kg FOB. Chinese sultanas type 9 RTU in Hamburg remain competitive at 1.744 EUR/kg FCA, while Afghan feed-grade raisins in Dordrecht are quoted around 1.97 EUR/kg FCA, underlining how logistics and quality segmentation buffer EU prices from the sharp origin collapse in Kandahar.

Supply & Demand

Afghanistan remains a key supplier of raisins, figs, saffron and pistachios, with Kandahar a pivotal hub for the raisin trade. However, exports have dropped sharply over the last two years as major land routes through Pakistan stay disrupted, leaving growers heavily reliant on air freight that is too expensive for bulk commodity flows.

This has created an unusual disconnect: at origin, supply of both fresh grapes and newly dried raisins is effectively trapped, driving steep local price declines. In importing markets such as India, availability can still feel tight despite reduced Afghan arrivals, because logistics—not production—are the primary constraint. Indian FOB prices for higher-quality raisins in New Delhi have been broadly stable so far in September, highlighting how elevated freight and re-routing costs partly offset any theoretical benefit from cheaper Afghan origin.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, Afghan farmers are responding to blocked fresh-fruit exports by drying more grapes and other fruits to extend shelf life. While this raises the volume of raisins produced, it also adds processing and storage costs, further squeezing already depressed farm margins. Without economically viable export channels, a growing share of this production risks being sold at distressed prices domestically or downgraded into feed and lower grades.

Weather conditions in key raisin regions currently support quality but do not alleviate the logistical bottleneck. Early-autumn temperatures around Kandahar remain warm and dry, aiding drying and storage of the new crop, while Turkish and Chinese growing belts have also enjoyed broadly favourable late-summer conditions, underpinning a smooth flow of new-crop sultanas into export channels. This contrast between good agronomic conditions and constrained Afghan trade flows is central to today’s market imbalance.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

Unless alternative export routes from Afghanistan to India and other markets become commercially viable, origin prices around Kandahar are likely to stay under heavy pressure into the new season. Import markets, meanwhile, will continue to reference Turkish and Chinese offers, with a near-term bias toward stable to slightly softer prices amid good 2026/27 crop inflows and cautious demand.

• Buyers in India and the Middle East: Consider partial coverage on Turkish and Chinese origins at current levels, while remaining flexible to capture any discounted Afghan parcels if and when logistics windows briefly open.
• European buyers: Use softer Turkish FOB and competitive Chinese FCA levels to secure nearby needs, but avoid overextending coverage given the risk of further modest downside if demand stays subdued.
• Afghan growers and traders: Focus on quality differentiation and storage where possible, aiming to bridge to any improvement in overland corridors or to niche buyers willing to share higher logistics costs.

Over the coming three trading days, Turkish sultanas in Malatya are expected to remain broadly stable to slightly softer in EUR terms, Chinese RTU offers in Hamburg should stay competitive and flat to marginally firmer, while Afghan-linked FCA prices in Europe are likely to hover near current levels as buyers cautiously test distressed origin availability.