Turkish Raisins Edge Softer While Chinese Offers Stay Competitive

Turkish raisin prices are edging slightly softer across key Malatya sultanas grades, while Chinese RTU offers in Europe hold a small upward bias, keeping global trade flows competitive and broadly range‑bound. Weather in both Turkey and China remains largely favourable for drying and late‑season handling, limiting immediate supply shocks. Raisin markets are still digesting the 2026/27 Turkish sultana crop as export pipelines gradually fill and policy signals from TMO remain key for direction. Recent market commentary highlights sideways euro‑denominated Turkish price action as buyers secure nearby cover but avoid extending positions aggressively, with TARIS’ advance purchase price setting only a cautious floor for grower sentiment.  In Malatya and the wider Aegean belt, late‑September weather is warm, dry to partly cloudy, and largely ideal for drying and storage operations, with daytime highs mostly in the mid‑20s to around 30°C and no major rainfall risk signalled in the coming days.  In China, national forecasters expect generally favourable autumn harvesting conditions, advising growers mainly to guard against pockets of prolonged rain and waterlogging rather than widespread extremes, which supports a steady outlook for Turpan‑based raisin supplies.  Local fresh white Sultani grape prices around Malatya have firmed modestly, reflecting active physical trade and helping to anchor raw material values for dried products. 

Prices

Turkish sultana prices in Malatya show a mild week‑on‑week easing across conventional grades, consistent with recent commentary of a mixed but broadly sideways pattern as the new crop arrives and buyers continue to resist grower attempts at higher levels.  Chinese RTU sultanas ex‑Hamburg edge up fractionally, preserving their discount to Turkish product and underpinning competitive buying interest, especially from cost‑sensitive EU snack and bakery users.

Supply & Demand

The 2026/27 Turkish sultana crop is moving more smoothly into commercial channels than early pre‑season fears suggested, with hot, dry conditions through late August and early September supporting good drying and quality outturns in key Aegean and Malatya vineyards.  Producer sentiment, however, remains cautious amid political pressure for supportive intervention, mirroring concerns already visible in Malatya’s dried apricot sector where growers complain about weak prices and call for firmer TMO action. 

In China, Turpan and surrounding Xinjiang areas continue to dominate national raisin supply, and current autumn outlooks point to generally favourable harvest and drying weather, with forecasters mainly warning against localised spells of cloudy, wet conditions that could briefly slow operations.  This supports a steady export pipeline of green and dark raisins, keeping Chinese offers in Europe and Asia competitive and limiting Turkey’s scope to push prices higher in the near term.

Weather Watch (TR & CN)

Turkey – Malatya region (TR): Short‑term forecasts for 22–24 September point to maximum temperatures around 24–29°C with clear to partly cloudy skies and low rainfall risk.  These conditions are supportive for final field drying, on‑farm handling and warehouse intake, with only modest cooling later in the month that should not threaten quality.

China – key raisin areas (CN): National guidance for the broader autumn harvest period expects overall favourable conditions but urges growers to monitor for episodes of prolonged rain and localised waterlogging, rather than extreme heat or early frost.  For Turpan and similar basins, this implies predominantly stable drying weather in the near term with short disruptions possible if cloudier, wetter intervals develop.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Policy overhang in Turkey: The market is still watching for clearer TMO intervention signals and how they will interact with TARIS’ already announced advance purchase price, a key determinant of how aggressively growers will release product. 
• Grower vs buyer price gap: As in Malatya apricots, producers argue that current dried fruit price levels underpay for costs and risks, while European buyers see adequate supply and focus on nearby, opportunistic coverage. 
• Chinese competition: With Xinjiang output and export flows broadly steady, Chinese raisins continue to cap Turkish upside, especially in lower and mid‑grade segments where price sensitivity is strongest. 

Trading Outlook

• Importers in EU & MENA: Consider layering in additional cover on Turkish type 8–10 grades at current slightly softer levels, particularly for Q4 2026 shipments, while leaving some open volume to react if TMO announces a stronger‑than‑expected support price.
• Blenders and industrial users: For cost‑optimised blends, explore incremental substitution towards Chinese RTU sultanas ex‑Hamburg where quality specifications allow, using the current EUR discount to hedge against potential Turkish policy‑driven rallies.
• Turkish packers/exporters: Focus on managing inventory pace rather than chasing higher offers; benign weather and competitive Chinese supply argue for disciplined, range‑bound pricing rather than aggressive bull positioning in the short term.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (22–24 September 2026)

• Turkey (Malatya, TR): With weather supportive and no fresh policy shock expected, export prices for sultana raisins are likely to remain broadly stable to slightly softer, especially on conventional FOB grades.
• China (Turpan supply into EU, CN origin): Stable to marginally firmer tone expected as modest demand and logistics costs keep RTU offers in Europe well bid, but without strong upward momentum.