🌽 Corn Market Rebounds as U.S. Tariff Suspension Eases Trade Concerns 📈
Corn futures rebounded as the U.S. government temporarily suspended tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, easing concerns over export disruptions. Bargain buying helped lift prices, while a weaker U.S. dollar added support. Meanwhile, Brazil’s seasonal export decline reduced competition for U.S. corn, but South American crop conditions continue to improve. Will this recovery last, or is another price drop ahead? Get the latest insights in today’s market report! 🚀📊
📊 Market Overview
🔹 CBoT: The most traded May contract gained 8.25 ct to 464 ct/bu, extending its recovery after recent heavy losses.
🔹 Euronext: The benchmark June contract increased by 0.50 EUR to 212 EUR/t, halting its downward trend.
🌍 Key Market Drivers
📌 1. U.S. Tariff Suspension Sparks Relief Rally
- The U.S. government suspended the 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which were imposed earlier this week.
- Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. corn, so the suspension alleviated concerns over potential trade disruptions.
- The U.S. dollar weakened, further supporting export competitiveness and lifting market sentiment.
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📌 2. Seasonal Decline in Brazilian Corn Exports
- Brazil’s corn exports are declining in March, as ports shift focus to shipping soybeans.
- The Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) expects March corn exports to fall to 338,000 tons, compared to 1.29 million tons in February.
- However, exports remain above March 2024 levels (141,000 tons).
- Peak season for Brazilian corn shipments: July–January, with monthly exports between 3–7 million tons.
📌 3. U.S. Weekly Export Sales Show Modest Gains
- USDA weekly corn bookings (Feb 27): 909,100 tons for 2024/2025.
- This figure was within market expectations (700,000 – 1 million tons).
- 📈 15% higher than the previous week but 📉 32% below the four-week average.
- Total U.S. corn export commitments for 2024/25 now stand at 49.567 million tons, compared to 39.227 million tons a year ago.
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 449.50 | 450.25 | 450.25 | 449.50 | 449.50 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| May 25 | 464.00 | 464.75 | 466.75 | 462.00 | 462.75 | -1.25 | -0.27% |
| Jul 25 | 470.75 | 471.25 | 473.25 | 469.00 | 469.75 | -1.00 | -0.21% |
| Sep 25 | 445.75 | 446.00 | 447.75 | 443.25 | 444.00 | -1.75 | -0.39% |
| Dec 25 | 451.00 | 451.25 | 453.00 | 448.25 | 449.00 | -2.00 | -0.44% |
📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25 | 212.25 | – | – | – | 212.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Aug 25 | 218.25 | – | – | – | 218.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Nov 25 | 213.50 | – | – | – | 213.50 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Trend | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| CBoT Corn | 🔄 Stabilizing | Tariff relief, U.S. export demand, South American harvest |
| Euronext Corn | 🔄 Neutral to Slightly Higher | Weak euro, strong U.S. price movement |
| Argentina & Brazil | 🔼 Volatile | Weather impacts, Safrinha planting pace |
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 More rain expected, helping late-planted corn.
- 🌡 Warm temperatures persist, which may slow recovery.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: Soybean harvest is ahead of last year, benefiting corn planting.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rain could slow remaining corn planting but support early crop growth.
- 🌤 Drier conditions in southern Brazil could aid planting progress.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📌 Stock Levels (Since 2021)
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 Mio. t |
📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 25.5 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 390 | +1.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 46 | -6.1% |
📊 Summary: Brazil is continuing steady growth, while Argentina faces drought-related losses.
📌 Summary & Market Outlook
📊 Corn markets rebound after tariff relief, but concerns over global supply persist.
🌎 Brazil’s seasonal export decline limits competition, but long-term supply remains strong.
📉 U.S. export sales were within expectations, but still below the four-week average.
🔍 Corn futures likely to consolidate in the short term, with trade policy and export data driving sentiment.
📢 Stay updated for further market insights! 🚀