🌽 Corn Market Stabilizes After Eight-Day Losing Streak – Trade Tensions Remain a Key Risk 📉📈
After eight consecutive losing sessions, corn futures at the CBoT saw a slight rebound, while Euronext corn also stabilized. Bargain buying helped lift prices, but concerns over trade tensions and export demand continued to weigh on the market. The U.S. government’s temporary suspension of auto-sector tariffs raised hopes that agricultural imports could also receive exemptions, while improving South American crop conditions added pressure. Will this be the start of a recovery, or just a temporary pause before further declines? Find out in today’s market update! 🚀📊
📊 Market Overview
🔹 CBoT: The most traded May contract gained 4.24 ct to 455.75 ct/bu (166 EUR/t), marking its first increase after eight consecutive sessions of losses.
🔹 Euronext: The benchmark June contract rose by 0.75 EUR to 211.75 EUR/t, breaking a four-day losing streak.
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🌍 Key Market Drivers
📌 1. Market Finds Support at Low Price Levels
- After falling to multi-month lows, corn prices attracted bargain buying.
- However, ongoing concerns about trade conflicts and export demand limited further gains.
📌 2. U.S. Government Softens Tariff Stance in Some Sectors
- The 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, which came into effect Tuesday, were temporarily suspended for the auto industry to allow companies time to adjust.
- This has raised hopes that similar exceptions could be granted to other industries, including agriculture, helping to stabilize prices.
📌 3. U.S. Ethanol Production Sees Small Increase
- U.S. ethanol production rose by 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.093 million bpd last week.
- Ethanol stocks increased by 282,000 barrels, reaching 27.289 million barrels.
- Impact on market: While ethanol production supports corn demand, high stock levels limit upside potential.
📌 4. USDA Export Sales Expectations
- Analysts expect weekly corn export sales of 700,000 – 1 million tons for 2024/25, ahead of the USDA’s official export report.
- New crop sales are projected between 0 – 100,000 tons.
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 440.25 | 443.50 | 443.50 | 442.50 | 442.50 | +2.25 | +0.51% |
| May 25 | 455.75 | 457.00 | 461.50 | 457.00 | 458.00 | +2.25 | +0.49% |
| Jul 25 | 463.25 | 464.25 | 468.75 | 464.25 | 465.00 | +1.75 | +0.38% |
| Sep 25 | 441.00 | 442.00 | 445.25 | 441.25 | 441.50 | +0.50 | +0.11% |
| Dec 25 | 446.75 | 448.25 | 450.75 | 446.75 | 447.00 | +0.25 | +0.06% |
📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 181.75 | – | – | – | 181.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Jun 25 | 211.75 | – | – | – | 211.75 | +0.75 | +0.36% |
| Aug 25 | 217.00 | – | – | – | 217.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Nov 25 | 213.00 | – | – | – | 213.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Trend | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| CBoT Corn | 🔄 Stabilizing | Bargain buying, awaiting USDA export data |
| Euronext Corn | 🔽 Slight Downward Pressure | Stronger euro limiting price recovery |
| Argentina & Brazil | 🔼 Weather-Driven Volatility | Rain in Argentina, fast Safrinha planting in Brazil |
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 More rain expected, helping late-planted corn.
- 🌡 Warm temperatures persist, which may slow recovery.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: Soybean harvest is ahead of last year, benefiting corn planting.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rain could slow remaining corn planting but support early crop growth.
- 🌤 Drier conditions in southern Brazil could aid planting progress.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
📌 Stock Levels (Since 2021)
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 Mio. t |
📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 25.5 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 390 | +1.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 46 | -6.1% |
📊 Summary: Brazil is continuing steady growth, while Argentina faces drought-related losses.
📌 Summary & Market Outlook
📊 Corn markets stabilize after a long losing streak but remain under pressure from trade concerns.
🌎 South American weather improves, reducing price risks.
📉 Hedge funds are still liquidating positions, limiting upside potential.
🔍 Corn futures likely to remain range-bound in the near term, awaiting USDA export data.
📢 Stay updated for further market insights! 🚀