Corn Prices Decline Amid WASDE Report Adjustments & South American Crop Updates

🌽 Corn Prices Decline Amid WASDE Report Adjustments & South American Crop Updates 📉

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Corn prices continued to decline at both CBoT and Euronext following WASDE’s upward revision of global corn production. India, Russia, and Ukraine saw production gains, while South Africa and Mexico faced declines. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn exports were revised down as more of the crop is used for biofuel production. Will these factors continue to pressure the market, or is a rebound ahead? Get the full breakdown in today’s report! 🚀📊

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📊 Market Overview

🔹 CBoT: The most traded May contract fell 1.75 ct to 470.25 ct/bu, as global supply projections increased.
🔹 Euronext: The benchmark June contract declined 1.00 EUR to 212.00 EUR/t, as the stronger euro limited gains.

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

📌 1. WASDE Report: Global Corn Production Revised Upward

• The global corn production forecast for 2024/25 increased by 1.7 million tons, bringing the total to 1,214.17 million tons.
• Key Adjustments:
  • India: Larger planting areas and excellent monsoon rainfall boosted estimates.
  • Russia: Updated harvest data showed improved yields.
  • Ukraine: Recent harvest reports indicate higher-than-expected output.
• Stock Adjustments:
  • Despite higher production, global ending stocks dropped by 1.37 million tons to 288.94 million tons.
  • China and Argentina saw stock declines, offset slightly by gains in Russia and India.

📌 2. Brazil’s Corn Exports Revised Down

• WASDE cut Brazil’s corn export forecast by 2 million tons to 44 million tons, as more corn is redirected for domestic biofuel production.
• China’s import expectations were lowered to 8 million tons (-2 million tons).
• Mexico’s import demand remains steady at 24.5 million tons.

📌 3. South American Crop Conditions Remain Mixed

• Argentina:
  • Recent heavy rainfall in Buenos Aires & Córdoba improved soil moisture, boosting yield potential.
  • However, drier conditions in the north continue to stress crops.
• Brazil:
  • 92% of the second (Safrinha) corn crop is planted, up 12 percentage points from last week.
  • However, the optimal planting window has now closed, leaving 20% of the crop planted outside ideal conditions.
  • Southern Brazil remains dry, creating concerns for late-season development.

📌 4. FAO Global Grain Outlook

• FAO expects total global grain production (including corn) to reach 2.842 billion tons in 2024.
• Global grain consumption is projected to rise to 2.867 billion tons, reducing stock levels by 1.9% to 869.3 million tons.
• Stock-to-use ratio (global reserves vs. consumption) is projected at 29.9%, suggesting a marginally tightening supply.

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📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)

Contract	Prev. Close	Open	High	Low	Last	Change	% Change
Mar 25	456.50	455.00	455.00	455.00	455.00	-1.50	-0.33%
May 25	470.25	469.25	472.00	467.25	467.50	-2.75	-0.58%
Jul 25	477.00	476.00	478.25	473.50	473.50	-3.50	-0.73%
Sep 25	449.75	449.50	450.75	447.75	448.00	-1.75	-0.39%
Dec 25	454.50	453.00	455.00	452.50	452.50	-2.00	-0.44%

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📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)

Contract	Prev. Close	Open	High	Low	Last	Change	% Change
Jun 25	212.00	–	–	–	212.00	-1.00	-0.47%
Aug 25	217.25	–	–	–	217.25	0.00	0.00%
Nov 25	214.50	–	–	–	214.50	0.00	0.00%

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Market	Expected Trend	Key Factors
CBoT Corn	🔽 Bearish	Higher global production forecast
Euronext Corn	🔽 Slight Downward Pressure	Strong euro, weak U.S. trend
Argentina & Brazil	🔼 Volatile	Weather-driven risks

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🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)

📍 Current Conditions: Heavy rainfall boosted yield potential.
📆 Next 14 Days:

• 🌧 More rain expected in Buenos Aires & Córdoba, improving late-stage crops.
• 🌡 Drier conditions in the north could lower overall yields.

🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)

📍 Current Conditions: 92% of the Safrinha corn crop is planted.
📆 Next 14 Days:

• 🌧 Rain slowing down late-season planting but supporting early growth.
• 🌤 Southern Brazil remains dry, potentially reducing yields.

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📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks

📌 Stock Levels (Since 2021)

Season	Global Stocks (Mio. t)	YoY Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 Mio. t
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 Mio. t
2024/25	288.94	-6.9 Mio. t

📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 22.56 million tons!

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🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison

Country	2022/23 (Mio. t)	2023/24 (Mio. t)	2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t)	Change (%)
🇺🇸 USA	382	385	390	+1.3%
🇨🇳 China	283	290	292	+0.7%
🇧🇷 Brazil	125	135	137	+1.5%
🇦🇷 Argentina	51	49	46	-6.1%

📊 Summary: Brazil continues steady growth, while Argentina’s crop potential remains uncertain.

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📌 Summary & Market Outlook

📊 WASDE’s higher corn production estimate pressured prices, despite lower ending stocks.
🌎 South America remains a mixed factor – Argentina improving, Brazil facing delays.
📉 U.S. exports remain stable, but weak global demand weighs on sentiment.
🔍 Corn futures likely to remain range-bound, with trade policies and planting updates driving movement.

📢 Stay tuned for further market insights! 🚀