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Cumin Likely to Fall Due to Artificial Bullish Phase

Mintec Global
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Leading speculators and exporters of the country formed a syndicate and artificially increased the price of cumin. Due to the complete stoppage of cumin export in Bangladesh and China, the exporters, along with speculators, had artificially inflated the cumin prices.

Decrease of 30,000 tonnes in the export

Cumin exports to China have slowed down after September, and very little cumin has been exported. The vacuum of cumin in Bangladesh has also decreased yearly due to exporters having to fill 110% of finance in advance to open LC (Letter of Credit) in Bangladesh. Thus, there has been a decrease of 30,000 tonnes in the export of cumin in the current season compared to last year.

The export of Indian cumin has decreased due to high prices of cumin resulting from the artificial boom, and the effect of the great recession has started showing at the global level.

Future Scenario

The new crop is estimated to come to around 6 million bags, and 1 million bags of cumin will be carried forward. Cumin sowing is 20% less in Gujarat, and 15 to 20% increased in Rajasthan. According to the average of the last 3 years, the total sowing of Gujarat and Rajasthan is 20 to 25% less, but compared to the previous year, sowing has increased by 15 to 20%. The cumin crop in Rajasthan is still in the initial stage, due to which the weather of February and March will play an essential role in the harvest.

Due to the annual requirement of 4 to 5 million bags of cumin for export and 3.5 to 4 million bags for domestic consumption, the balance sheet of cumin will also remain tight in the new season. Thus, based on the weather of February-March in, Cumin will show a bearish or bullish trend.

The cumin seeds grade A  prices were recorded at $4,11 per kg FOB.

Import/Export Statistics

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