Farmer Tensions and TMO Rumors Put Raisin Prices on Watch

Turkish raisin supply is entering a politically tense phase: farmers are demanding sharply higher raw material prices while market prices remain stuck, and rumors of a large TMO intervention could become the main catalyst for a price reset. In recent weeks, activity in the Turkish raisin sector has been driven less by trade flows and more by escalating tensions between growers and agricultural chambers. Producers face sharply higher input costs for pesticides, fertilizers and fuel, while raw material prices for raisins are reportedly stagnating around 100–120 TL/kg, well below farmers’ floor expectation of about 180 TL/kg. At the same time, the market is watching unconfirmed talk that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) could step in with a sizeable purchase program, potentially 100,000 tons, ahead of the new season. With stable export offer levels and mostly favorable near-term weather in key regions like Manisa, the short-term risk is skewed toward a political or policy-driven upward adjustment in raw material prices rather than a demand shock.

Prices & Current Levels

Export offers for Turkish raisins are broadly stable in EUR terms, despite the mounting cost pressure at farm level. Standard Turkish sultanas type 9 grade A are indicated around EUR 2.10/kg FOB Malatya, with type 8 grade A at roughly EUR 2.05/kg and higher-quality type 10 grade A at about EUR 2.30/kg FOB. Organic sultanas type 9 stand out at around EUR 3.10/kg FOB, reflecting their premium positioning. CIF offers for Turkish RTU raisins into import markets are around EUR 2.13/kg, while similar Turkish product ex warehouse in Northwestern Europe is offered closer to EUR 2.85/kg FCA, highlighting logistics and margin layers.

Competing origins show slightly higher or comparable levels for similar categories. Chinese sultanas type 9 RTU standard into Germany are offered around EUR 2.15–2.27/kg FCA, and Indian golden and brown raisins mostly range between roughly EUR 1.90 and 2.60/kg depending on grade and delivery terms. This leaves Turkey competitively priced on standard sultanas, but the current farm-gate/raw material level reported in lira suggests limited room for further discounting without political or institutional support.

Supply, Farmer Tensions & Policy Risk

The key driver in the coming weeks is not crop size, but the widening gap between farm economics and market prices in Turkey. Farmers, backed by regional agricultural chambers, are actively trying to push the government to recognize rising production costs, especially for plant protection products, fertilizers and fuel. With raw fruit prices for raisins still hovering around 100–120 TL/kg, growers argue that they need at least 180 TL/kg to cover costs and justify continued cultivation. This dispute is already creating heightened uncertainty around forward contracting and early-season availability.

Overlaying this social tension is market speculation that the Turkish Grain Board could intervene on the raisin market. While unconfirmed, expectations center on a potential TMO purchase program in the area of 100,000 tons for the new season. Given TMO’s strong track record in cereals as a price-setter, any official announcement of volume and price would have an outsized impact on raw material levels and, by extension, export offers. Until details become clear, many domestic actors are likely to delay major sales commitments, effectively tightening visible supply even if physical availability is adequate.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

Fundamentally, global raisin supply remains ample, with Turkey, the U.S., Iran, India, South Africa and Chile all playing significant roles. However, the current Turkish situation is less about global balance sheets and more about internal price formation. The rumored TMO involvement suggests an intent to prevent farmer distress and stabilize incomes, a pattern already visible in other crops, which could translate into a firmer internal floor for raisins once the season starts in earnest.

Short-term weather in western Turkey’s main grape and raisin regions (including Manisa province) is generally favorable for vineyards. Forecasts for the next several days point to mostly dry, sunny conditions with daytime temperatures in the mid-20s to around 30°C and moderate humidity, a suitable pattern for vine development without acute heat or rain stress.   Such weather reduces immediate production risk, reinforcing that the primary near-term uncertainty stems from policy and pricing decisions rather than yield loss.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers / food industry: With Turkish FOB prices competitive but farmer tensions intensifying, consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 needs at current EUR levels, while keeping some flexibility for potential TMO-driven price announcements. Focus on clearly specified quality (type, grade, RTU status) to avoid later renegotiations.
• Packers / traders in Turkey: Avoid over-committing at today’s low raw material levels in TL while farmer protests and TMO rumors persist. Incorporate wider risk premiums or shorter validity periods in offers until official purchase prices are clarified.
• Buyers of organic and specialty raisins: Organic Turkish sultanas already trade at a notable premium around EUR 3.10/kg FOB. Given limited supply elasticity and likely strong cost pressure, early coverage for niche segments appears prudent.
• Hedging & risk management: Treat any official TMO announcement on raisins as a key trigger event. Prepare to adjust procurement and sales strategies quickly in response to confirmed purchase volumes and price levels, which could reprice the entire Turkish raisin complex.

3-Day Price Direction Outlook (Key References)

• Turkey, FOB Malatya (sultanas type 8–10): Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR over the next three days, as participants wait for clearer signals from Ankara and farmer actions.
• Turkey → EU, FCA NL (RTU Turkish sultanas): Stable in EUR terms; no immediate trigger for discounts, with some upside risk if replacement costs in Turkey rise.
• Competing origins (China, India, Chile, EU stock hubs): Largely steady; any upward move is likely to follow rather than lead Turkish policy developments, given Turkey’s price-leadership on standard sultanas.