Fennel Market Analysis: Oversupply Maintains Downward Pressure, Prospects Remain Muted

The Indian fennel market finds itself contending with unrelenting downward price pressure as excessive stocks and subdued demand overshadow the early festive season. Despite what is typically a period of heightened consumption, the anticipated seasonal uplift has yet to materialize, constrained by substantial carryover inventories and hesitant buying from both domestic and export channels. This glut, exacerbated by robust production in the previous year, has resulted in wholesale prices softening noticeably, with traders and farmers alike expressing concern about the lack of momentum.

In New Delhi, bulk fennel currently trades between $1,560 and $1,730 per metric ton, while premium lots fetch $1,920 to $2,190 per metric ton—levels that underscore a nearly $120 per metric ton month-on-month retreat. Market sentiment is tempered further by the observation that key mandis are carrying stockpiles some 20% above the seasonal norm, delaying any meaningful recovery in prices. Across growing states such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, unsold old stock remains abundant, keeping buyers on the sidelines. With mounting input costs and lackluster returns, many farmers are reevaluating their upcoming sowing strategies, signaling potential longer-term adjustments in output. In sum, absent a notable reduction in supply or a surge in export activity, market participants should brace for continued weak pricing at least through the near term.

📈 Fennel Market Prices

Product	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Price (EUR/MT)	Previous Price	Update Date	Sentiment
Fennel	Whole		Yes	New Delhi	2.57	2.55	2025-08-02	Neutral/Bearish
Fennel seeds	Grade A	99%	No	New Delhi	1.17	1.16	2025-08-02	Bearish
Fennel seeds	Grade A	98%	No	New Delhi	0.91	0.90	2025-08-02	Bearish
Fennel seeds		99%	No	New Delhi	1.04	1.02	2025-08-02	Bearish
Fennel seeds		98%	No	New Delhi	0.95	0.94	2025-08-02	Bearish
Fennel	Powder		Yes	New Delhi	2.70	2.67	2025-08-02	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Excessive stocks from bumper 2024 harvest are weighing on wholesale and export markets.
• Stock levels in key mandis currently 20% higher than seasonal average, hampering price recovery.
• Festive demand has not provided the expected support due to abundant old stock and tepid retail movement.
• Export activity remains sluggish, with limited international buying interest reported in recent weeks.
• Farmers hesitating on 2025/26 sowing amid rising input costs and low price realization.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Inventory: Persistent high stocks across Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal.
• Production: Above-average yields in the last season, leading to larger-than-normal carryover despite moderate domestic consumption.
• Speculative Activity: Traders largely inactive, waiting for clear demand signals or inventory drawdowns.

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Gujarat & Rajasthan: Monsoon patterns have been close to normal, but patchy rainfall in some regions could reduce new crop acreage if farmers cut plantings.
• UP, MP & West Bengal: Current conditions stable, but localized heavy rains could disrupt land preparation and influence sowing delays.
• Impact: Weather is not currently a price driver—focus remains on stocks and weak demand. However, further adverse weather would provide support for prices if it results in lower sowing or potential losses in the coming season.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• India: Remains the dominant global exporter and producer of fennel; local prices are currently lower versus historical averages.
• Egypt, Turkey: Other significant export origins, but no major disruptions or unusual trends reported thus far in 2025.
• International Demand: No clear signs of rebound from major importers (e.g., EU, Middle East, US), keeping Indian export prices subdued.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Continue to monitor stock withdrawal in local mandis—only a sharp reduction will enable a price floor.
• Buyers may adopt a wait-and-see approach unless export demand improves substantially.
• Farmers should consider risk management tools if planning for new season sowing to hedge against further downside.
• Speculators: Caution warranted; upside is limited barring supply shocks or new demand triggers.
• Exporters should stay in close touch with overseas demand—any price uptick could be short-lived given current fundamentals.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchange & Spot Levels)

Date	Product	Location	Forecasted Price (EUR/MT)	Trend
2025-08-03	Fennel (whole, organic)	New Delhi	2.57	Flat/Slight decrease
2025-08-04	Fennel seeds (grade A, 99%)	New Delhi	1.16	Flat
2025-08-05	Fennel seeds (grade A, 98%)	New Delhi	0.90	Flat

Outlook: Unless there is a surprise in demand or significant weather event, prices are expected to stay near current levels with possible downside risk from continuing oversupply.