Fennel Market at a Crossroads: Low Sowing, Falling Prices, and Uncertain Outlook

The global fennel market finds itself at a critical juncture in mid-2025, with farmers and traders alike watching developments in India—one of the world’s key producers—closely. Despite respectable yields in the past two seasons, persistent low prices have left growers disillusioned and reluctant to invest further. In leading Indian fennel belts such as Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, a pronounced reduction in sowing activity has emerged this kharif season. The catalyst? Prices that have failed to cross meaningful thresholds, hovering well below what farmers consider sustainable. Notably, last season saw average kharif prices struggle around $36 per quintal and rabi season rates stick near $24 per quintal. Consequently, a shift towards other, more lucrative crops is underway. Industry observers warn that unless export demand or end-user prices strengthen, the draw of fennel cultivation may continue to diminish.

Pressure is felt not just domestically, but globally—where demand patterns and currency shifts play a role in price discovery. Market participants now debate when, or even if, a rebound is possible. Unless international buyers return in force and prices recover above $36–$42 per quintal, the cultivation and supply of fennel could become increasingly limited, potentially paving the way for future volatility.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Product	Grade/Purity	Organic	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Date	Sentiment
Fennel (whole)	–	Yes	New Delhi	2.55	2.60	-1.9%	2025-07-26	Bearish
Fennel seeds (Grade A)	99%	No	New Delhi	1.16	1.17	-0.9%	2025-07-26	Bearish
Fennel seeds (Grade A)	98%	No	New Delhi	0.90	0.91	-1.1%	2025-07-26	Bearish
Fennel seeds	99%	No	New Delhi	1.02	1.03	-1.0%	2025-07-26	Bearish
Fennel seeds	98%	No	New Delhi	0.94	0.95	-1.1%	2025-07-26	Bearish
Fennel (powder)	–	Yes	New Delhi	2.67	2.71	-1.5%	2025-07-26	Bearish

Summary: Prices remain soft and market sentiment is bearish on all major product forms. Weekly changes ranged from -0.9% to -1.9%, reflecting ongoing supply-side pressure and cautious demand.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Sharp Sowing Reduction: Leading producing states report substantial declines in fennel acreage. Key districts in Gujarat (Patan, Banaskantha, Mehsana) and belts in Rajasthan/Madhya Pradesh note lower plantings due to poor grower returns.
• Switch to Alternative Crops: Farmers are moving to more profitable options as recent rabi and kharif prices discouraged further investment in fennel.
• Export Demand: Experts highlight weak export appetite as another limiting factor. Until consistent international demand returns, upward price momentum is unlikely.
• Inventory Backlog: Good harvests in prior years have contributed to ample carryover stocks, pressuring spot prices further.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Comparison to Last Year

• Production: 2024-25 output expected to be sharply down due to reduced sowing.
• Pricing History: Previous kharif average: ~$36/quintal | Rabi: ~$24/quintal. Prices must sustainably climb above $36–$42/quintal for any sowing recovery.
• Year-on-Year: Last year’s report showed stable but low prices and marginal area declines. This year, area contraction is notably more severe, signaling a supply shortage could loom in late 2025–early 2026 if price recovery does not materialize.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Gujarat & Rajasthan: Monsoon conditions in July–August 2025 have been average to slightly below normal. Rainfall shortfalls may impact late sown or irrigated tracts in north Gujarat and central Rajasthan.
• Implications: Lower soil moisture could further impact yields where crops are still planted, compounding the acreage decline issue.
• Madhya Pradesh: Early season dryness also reports, though mild rainfall expected over next 3 days may offer brief relief.

🌐 Global Production & Trade Snapshots

• India: Remains the largest exporter, but falling acreage could limit exportable surpluses.
• Other Producers: China and Egypt continue steady production but are expected to see little change in sown area; their export availability is stable, but Indian contraction could shift trade flows.
• Import Markets: Major importers include the Middle East, Europe, and North America. Buyers may face tighter spot supply into Q1 2026 if Indian pipeline shrinks.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term mood bearish; prices remain under pressure from high stock and low demand.
• Mid- to long-term, monitor for signs of stock drawdown, revived export buying, and responses to lower sowing—potential for bullish reversal in late 2025 if pipeline tightens.
• Buyers: Consider locking in contracts before late-2025 if further supply cuts materialize.
• Sellers: Manage inventory strategically, as delayed sales into late 2025 could benefit from potential rebounds if supply shortage emerges.
• Speculators: Caution advised; shorting opportunity currently but watch for reversal signals (rising local prices, fresh export inquiries).

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (New Delhi FOB)

Product	Today (EUR/kg)	Day 2	Day 3	Sentiment
Fennel (whole, organic)	2.55	2.54	2.53	Bearish
Fennel seeds (Grade A, 99%)	1.16	1.15	1.14	Bearish
Fennel seeds (Grade A, 98%)	0.90	0.89	0.88	Bearish

Forecast: Prices expected to remain under pressure over the next three days, continuing recent downward momentum as stocks remain adequate and demand muted.

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