The Indian fennel market remains at a significant crossroads in June 2025. The sector has endured a period of suppressed prices, primarily due to large carryover stocks and subdued export inquiries, even as current-year output took a sharp downturn. With production estimates dropping steeply from last year’s highs—triggered by depressed sowing incentives and challenging heatwaves during harvest—the overall sentiment among growers and traders has been cautious. India’s key growing regions, Gujarat and Rajasthan, harvested an estimated 1.8–2 million bags in 2024–25, less than half the 3.8–4 million bags in the prior cycle. However, prices have not responded upward as briskly as anticipated, with leftover inventories from last season continuing to weigh on the market. Meanwhile, export momentum—though muted in terms of pricing—has hit record volumes, highlighting India’s dominance in global fennel trade. With domestic arrivals declining sharply and tentative signs of renewed export interest, traders are starting to anticipate modest price strengthening, assuming no abrupt global shocks. Weather outlooks, international geopolitical tensions, and evolving export interest will dictate the next market movements.
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Fennel
whole
FOB 2.65 €/kg
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Fennel seeds
grade - A
99%
FOB 1.17 €/kg
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Fennel seeds
grade - A
98%
FOB 0.91 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Type / Purity | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fennel (whole, organic) | IN | New Delhi | — | 2.65 | 2.67 | 2025-06-14 | Stable/Soft |
| Fennel seeds (grade A, 99%) | IN | New Delhi | Grade A / 99% | 1.17 | 1.27 | 2025-06-14 | Weakening |
| Fennel seeds (grade A, 98%) | IN | New Delhi | Grade A / 98% | 0.91 | 0.97 | 2025-06-14 | Weakening |
| Fennel seeds (99%) | IN | New Delhi | 99% | 1.02 | 1.06 | 2025-06-14 | Bearish |
| Fennel seeds (98%) | IN | New Delhi | 98% | 0.94 | 0.96 | 2025-06-14 | Bearish |
| Fennel (powder, organic) | IN | New Delhi | — | 2.74 | 2.76 | 2025-06-14 | Stable/Soft |
| Fennel seeds (98%) | BR | Brasília | 98% | 1.90 | 1.90 | 2025-05-30 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Production: 2024–25 production estimated at 1.8–2 million bags (down sharply from 3.8–4 million last year), mainly due to price-driven reduction in acreage and adverse heat during harvesting.
- Stocks: Heavy carryover from 2023’s record output (2–2.2 million bags), keeping prices supressed despite the latest output drop.
- Arrivals: Over 60–70% of new harvest has hit the market, but arrivals slowed from peak 30,000 to ~5,000 sacks/day in Gujarat’s Unjha market by mid-June.
- Domestic Demand: Stable, but market focus largely shifted to export prospects.
- Exports: Record 76,586 tonnes exported Apr–Mar (+94% YoY from 39,564 tonnes). Revenue increase limited (14%) due to low prices.
- Importers: Key destinations include Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Some international buyers holding off due to pricing and logistics concerns linked to global tensions.
📊 Fundamentals
- Drivers:
- USDA/Indian Agriculture market signals: production cut estimates, acreage downtrend, export pace increases.
- Speculation: Inventory liquidation and wait-and-watch approach by exporters; potential for short squeezing if export orders pick up.
- Geopolitical: Shipping lanes and payment interruptions have curbed some Middle Eastern and European demand.
- International Comparison:
- Brazil – limited export activity; prices steady at EUR 1.90/kg FOB.
- China – minor producer in context, not price-setting globally at this stage.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Gujarat & Rajasthan (India): The tail end of the rabi harvest saw excessive heat stress, reducing yields by 15–25%. Short-term (next 7 days) monsoon onset is expected to ease land preparation for the next sowing cycle, but not to impact current arrivals.
- Long-term: Meteorological models predict a normal monsoon, supporting potential for a rebound in fennel area—provided farmgate prices rise to incentivize sowing.
- No significant weather threats in Brazilian growing regions forecasted this month.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024–25 Production Estimate | Stocks/Carryover | Export Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1.8–2.0 million bags | High (from 2023 record) | Record—recovering exports |
| Brazil | Stable/Low | Steady | Minor |
| China | Steady | Steady | Minor |
📌 Trading Outlook & Strategy
- Monitor export purchase activity—renewed orders could trigger moderate price recovery.
- Price lows likely set, barring a dramatic uptick in arrivals or surprise policy developments.
- Exporters: Review contract pricing structures—forward booking may secure better margins if global freight/logistics improve.
- Importers: Short-term buying opportunity persists if current soft pricing is sustained.
- Domestic traders: Hold stocks for moderate appreciation, especially amid declining arrivals and early export recovery signals.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Product / Type | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Trend (3-Day) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (India) | Fennel seeds, grade A (99%) | 1.17 | Mild firming to 1.18–1.20 |
| New Delhi (India) | Fennel seeds, grade A (98%) | 0.91 | Stable to slightly higher (0.91–0.92) |
| New Delhi (India) | Fennel (whole, organic) | 2.65 | Steady (2.65–2.70) |
| Brasília (Brazil) | Fennel seeds (98%) | 1.90 | Stable (1.90) |
Key Takeaway: The fennel market is showing tentative signs of stabilization. With limited downside risk, upside potential grows should export activity sustain its recovery. Close attention to export orders, stock replenishment, and emerging weather patterns will be critical for forward strategies.