The global fennel market finds itself at an unexpected crossroads this week. After a prolonged period of relative price stability, a sudden plunge has rattled both farmers and traders across major producing regions, with immediate repercussions for cultivation, processing, and rural livelihoods. Bulk buyers have exited the scene, citing sluggish demand, just as high arrivals hit key mandis, creating an oversupply situation. The confluence of low trade volumes and swelling inventory unleashed cascading price drops, with quality lots struggling to attract strong interest and a knock-on effect for farmgate incomes. These developments have triggered anxiety on both ends of the supply chain: many Indian farmers, especially in Gujarat and Rajasthan, have begun shifting to alternative crops to avoid further losses, while scores of women employed in fennel seed processing are facing job insecurity as operations scale back. Market observers warn that without a swift rebound in export demand or significant supply correction, downward momentum may persist. The weeks ahead are pivotal as stakeholders eye policy intervention and export market signals for possible relief. Cautious sentiment prevails, with social impacts now intertwined with trading dynamics.
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Fennel
whole
FOB 2.56 €/kg
(from IN)
Fennel seeds
grade - A
99%
FOB 1.17 €/kg
(from IN)
Fennel seeds
grade - A
98%
FOB 0.91 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type/Grade | Purity | Organic | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fennel (whole) | Whole | – | Yes | New Delhi, IN | 2.57 | 2.55 | +0.02 | Bearish |
| Fennel seeds | Grade-A | 99% | No | New Delhi, IN | 1.17 | 1.16 | +0.01 | Bearish |
| Fennel seeds | Grade-A | 98% | No | New Delhi, IN | 0.91 | 0.90 | +0.01 | Bearish |
| Fennel seeds | – | 99% | No | New Delhi, IN | 1.04 | 1.02 | +0.02 | Bearish |
| Fennel seeds | – | 98% | No | New Delhi, IN | 0.95 | 0.94 | +0.01 | Bearish |
| Fennel (powder) | Powder | – | Yes | New Delhi, IN | 2.70 | 2.67 | +0.03 | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Surge in arrivals in mandis coinciding with poor domestic and export demand led to oversupply.
- Bids on all quality lots notably weaker, even for top grades, underscoring lack of bulk buying.
- Farmers responding by cutting fennel acreage, with some in Gujarat and Rajasthan pivoting to alternate crops for profitability.
- Processing and labor demand fell, hitting especially women workers in value addition areas.
- Export markets remain subdued amid economic uncertainties and competitive pricing from other spice origins.
📊 Fundamental Data
- Wholesale Prices (Indian Mandis):
- Lowest quality: $385/quintal
- Medium grade: $460–510/quintal
- Top quality: $570–600/quintal (limited volumes)
- USDA or Indian ag ministry data (latest): Overall production in India remains high, but next season’s area likely to shrink by at least 10–15% if prices do not recover.
- Speculator activity: Minimal, with major trading houses and speculators largely sitting on the sidelines amid uncertainty.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Key producing belts (Gujarat, Rajasthan): Recent weather has been largely normal, with no major extremes reported during harvest.
- Short-term forecast (next 3 days):
- Mostly dry, mild temperatures benefiting post-harvest processing and transport.
- No major weather risks expected; however, any late rain could risk mold in residual unsold lots.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
- India: World’s largest producer and exporter; 2024 production up, but inventories high. 2025 plantings expected down due to pullback.
- China, Egypt: Stable output, but no major market shocks anticipated from these regions.
- Import Markets: Middle East importers have curtailed fresh purchases until prices stabilize.
📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔻 Sellers: Wait for market direction; consider storage if possible as further price drops are possible but limited downside as farmers cut acreage.
- 📦 Exporters: Monitor signals from Middle East and Europe for potential uptick in demand, but avoid aggressive selling into weak market.
- 🛒 Buyers: Consider spot purchases at lower prices, but stagger large procurement; watch for signs of government or institutional intervention.
- 👩🌾 Farmers: Diversification strategy advisable. Consider switching to crops with more stable support if prices do not recover in coming weeks.
- ⏳ Market Participants: Watch for any government announcements or export deals that could rapidly change sentiment.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Exchange/City | Expected Price Range (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2025 | New Delhi (FOB) | 0.90–1.15 | Bearish/Stable |
| Aug 4, 2025 | New Delhi (FOB) | 0.89–1.13 | Bearish |
| Aug 5, 2025 | New Delhi (FOB) | 0.89–1.12 | Bearish |