Despite a visible decrease in arrivals at major trading centers, the fennel market has seen a surprising drop in prices over the past week. Analysts and traders alike note the counterintuitive situation: tighter supply should have triggered firmness, but tepid demand has instead pulled prices down. In Unjha, Asia’s key spice hub, premium green fennel slipped from $4.40–$4.50/kg to $4.10–$4.30/kg. Average grades dropped from $3.95–$4.10/kg to $3.60–$3.75/kg, a weekly decline of $0.10–$0.20/kg. Other leading markets such as Gondal, Jamnagar, and a secondary key trading center echo this trend with similarly muted pricing. Industry participants report a 15–20% slump in arrivals, yet many remain hesitant to rebuild inventories, waiting for stronger retail or export cues—likely around the festive season.
Weather remains relatively favorable in growing areas, limiting speculator interest for now. The present mood is cautious, with the fennel trade watching closely for any uptick in buying demand before building fresh positions.
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📈 Fennel Price Review
| Market/Location | Quality | Current Price (USD/kg) | Last Week (USD/kg) | Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unjha (Main) | Premium Green | 4.10–4.30 | 4.40–4.50 | -0.20/-0.20 | Bearish |
| Unjha (Main) | Average | 3.60–3.75 | 3.95–4.10 | -0.35 | Bearish |
| Secondary Hub | Standard | 3.75–3.95 | 4.00–4.15 | -0.20 | Bearish |
| Gondal | All Grades | 3.85–4.00 | 4.10–4.20 | -0.20 | Bearish |
| Jamnagar | All Grades | 3.85–4.00 | 4.05–4.20 | -0.15 | Bearish |
| Name | Specification | Origin | Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fennel (Whole, Organic) | — | IN | New Delhi | 2.55 | 2.60 |
| Fennel Seeds (Grade A, 99%) | Non-Organic | IN | New Delhi | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Fennel Seeds (Grade A, 98%) | Non-Organic | IN | New Delhi | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| Fennel Seeds (99%) | Non-Organic | IN | New Delhi | 1.02 | 1.03 |
| Fennel Seeds (98%) | Non-Organic | IN | New Delhi | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Fennel (Powder, Organic) | — | IN | New Delhi | 2.67 | 2.71 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Arrivals: Major markets report a 15–20% reduction in arrivals, largely due to offseason and holding back by farmers.
- Demand: Retail and export demand remains weak, with end-users not aggressively replenishing inventories.
- Buyer Behavior: Stockists and traders prefer waiting for stronger demand signals before building fresh stock, especially with uncertainties ahead of festive demand.
- Speculative Positioning: Given the lack of fresh triggers and soft demand, speculative interest is subdued.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Global Comparison
- India: Remains the world’s largest fennel producer and exporter. Export shipments have shown moderate growth this year, but have slowed recently with international buyers sensitive to price movements and currency volatility.
- Other Major Producers: Egypt, Turkey, Iran. Their current crop situations are stable, keeping global supply relatively comfortable.
- Stock Position: Trade stocks are described as moderate. No major speculative hoarding observed.
- Importing Countries: Europe, Middle East, and North America continue standard procurement—no major spikes reported.
☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- India (Gujarat, Rajasthan): Weather is currently dry and stable—beneficial post-harvest but does not favor early sowing decisions. No weather threat is anticipated in the short term.
- Egypt/Turkey: Weather is broadly normal for off-cycle months, supporting stable global supply lines.
- Impact: No excess moisture or adverse events are reported in key production zones, thus minimizing concerns of supply shocks in the near future.
📆 Short-Term Forecast & Trading Outlook
- Downside Pressure Persists: Prices may remain soft until a clear uptick in retail/export demand or until traders begin to build stocks ahead of the festive season.
- Upside Triggers: A pick-up in festival-related demand or stronger export orders could swiftly reverse the current weakness.
- Strategic Advice:
- For end-users: Consider opportunistic buying while prices are depressed.
- For stockists: Wait for the first sign of retail/export revival before adding significant positions.
- For exporters: Monitor currency trends (USD/INR, EUR/INR) which may impact price realization in export markets.
- Risk: Continued weak demand could push prices marginally lower, though a sharp fall is unlikely given already reduced arrivals.
| Market | Today | 3-Day Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Unjha (Premium) | $4.10–$4.30/kg | $4.05–$4.25/kg |
| Unjha (Average) | $3.60–$3.75/kg | $3.60–$3.70/kg |
| Gondal/Jamnagar | $3.85–$4.00/kg | $3.80–$3.95/kg |
| New Delhi (FOB, Whole, Organic) | €2.55/kg | €2.50–€2.55/kg |
| New Delhi (FOB, Grade A, 99%) | €1.16/kg | €1.11–€1.15/kg |