The fennel market across key Indian mandis is exhibiting a classic supply-demand disconnect. While arrivals at major centers like Unjha and Gondal are steadily declining—Unjha reports just 2,000 bags daily and Gondal 1,400–1,600—the expected price support from reduced supply is nowhere in sight. Instead, prices have continued a steady slide, dropping by $0.13–$0.16 per kg over the past week across various grades. Last week’s average of $3.96/kg for fennel has eased to $3.80/kg, with some lots trading even lower.
Medium-grade fennel in Rajkot has seen a sharper fall, down from $4.44 to $3.84/kg. In other Gujarat markets, the range holds at $3.80–$3.96/kg, while Bhuj’s best-quality lots briefly fetched $4.44–$4.56/kg. Market participants attribute this weakness to a notable lack of retail and export demand, especially in comparison to more in-demand spices like cumin. Local reports suggest unless a pickup in buying surfaces, fennel prices will remain under pressure despite reduced arrivals today. Recent offers from New Delhi reinforce this trend, with both organic and conventional fennel registering mild but persistent declines. In summary: the fennel market stands at a weak junction, squeezed between falling supply and insufficient demand, pointing towards a cautious near-term outlook.
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📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Exchange/Market | Product & Grade | Current Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unjha | Average quality | 3.80 | 3.96 | Bearish |
| Unjha | Top quality | 4.44–4.56 | 4.44–4.56 | Stable/Weak |
| Rajkot | Medium grade | 3.84 | 4.44 | Bearish |
| Gondal | Market range | 3.80–3.96 | 3.96–4.00 | Bearish |
| Bhuj | Top quality | 3.96–4.00 | 4.00–4.10 | Bearish |
| Export/Import Offers (FOB New Delhi) | ||||
| FOB New Delhi | Fennel, whole (organic) | 2.55 EUR | 2.60 EUR | Bearish |
| FOB New Delhi | Fennel seeds 99% A | 1.16 EUR | 1.17 EUR | Bearish |
| FOB New Delhi | Fennel seeds 98% A | 0.90 EUR | 0.91 EUR | Bearish |
| FOB New Delhi | Fennel powder (organic) | 2.67 EUR | 2.71 EUR | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Market Arrivals: Unjha arrivals down to ~2,000 bags/day; Gondal at 1,400–1,600 bags/day—volume softening but not supporting price upward.
- Demand Side: Low retail and export offtake, with weak buying interest compared to cumin (jeera).
- Speculative Positioning: No strong evidence of major speculative buying or hoarding; overall market mood cautious.
- Seasonal Impact: Post-harvest flush waning, but subdued demand is dominating price action.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Context
- Indian Situation: India remains the world’s top exporter, but softer global import demand (notably from Southeast Asia and Europe) is weighing on prices.
- Comparison to Prior Report: Previous periods recorded marginally higher prices, especially in high-grade segments; the ongoing downtrend now appears broader based and more persistent.
- Inventories: Reports suggest adequate inventories in major warehousing centers, limiting upward price movement.
| Country | Typical Production (t) | Export Share (%) | Key Importers |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~700,000 | ~75% | UAE, Malaysia, Europe |
| China | ~90,000 | ~10% | South Asia |
| Egypt, Turkey | ~50,000 | ~5–10% | Middle East, Europe |
☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Gujarat & Rajasthan: Recent weather patterns indicate normal monsoon conditions with scattered light showers aiding soil moisture but not inducing harvest disruption.
- Acreage Impact: Modest rainfall in late season improved late crop but limited further expansion, keeping arrivals thin.
- Yield Effect: No significant reports of crop loss or damage; output estimates remain stable year-over-year.
📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- The price trend remains bearish until demand visibly recovers—watch for retail/export buying signals.
- With steady to lower arrivals, any incremental demand pickup could quickly support prices, especially in top grade.
- Exporters should monitor currency volatility and freight rates; importers may consider phased procurement as the bottom forms.
- Traders are cautioned against aggressive long positions until clear demand signals emerge.
- Premiums for organic product hold up slightly better, suggesting higher margins in that segment for now.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Forecast Price Range (USD/kg) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Unjha (avg) | 3.70–3.85 | Weak |
| Rajkot | 3.80–3.92 | Weak |
| Gondal | 3.80–3.94 | Flat/Weak |
| Bhuj | 3.92–4.02 | Flat/Weak |
