In a promising turn of events, the groundnut landscape in India, spanning states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra, paints a picture of unprecedented sowing conditions and superior quality for the kharif groundnut. This meteoric rise in quality bodes well, potentially heralding an ‘Indian Peanut Year’ on the global stage, should the next two months grace us with favourable weather conditions. This surge in Indian groundnut could potentially overshadow the issues other countries face regarding groundnut quality and yield.
Less yield in USA
Drawing insights from the global market, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has pegged America’s groundnut yield at 3.25 million tonnes. However, industry insiders suggest a more modest estimation of 3.075 million tonnes due to yield concerns. Nevertheless, the export of groundnut seeds is projected to rise to an impressive 0.975 million tonnes, showcasing an upward trend from the previous year. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil have faced a dip in groundnut production due to reduced sowing and yield.
Due to heavy rains, decrease in the crop is expected in China
In contrast, China’s groundnut landscape has been marred by heavy rains and the aftermath of three storms. While a decrease in the crop is expected, it is predicted to surpass the previous year by 10%. China, grappling with port issues in Sudan, is increasingly leaning towards importing groundnut seeds and oil from India rather than Sudan. This has been evident in the substantial surge of 51.86% in groundnut seed imports and 134.35% in groundnut oil imports from India from January to June. This trend is poised to continue in the upcoming season due to Sudan’s ongoing port problems.
Gujarat’s groundnut prospects also appear promising, with the El Nino effect leading to rainless days for the next 15 to 20 days. This, in turn, can positively impact the crop. However, the spectre of potential damage looms if rains arrive in September and October. While August may witness sluggish demand, the looming pipeline issue is expected to stabilise prices. The situation in September, combined with the influx of new arrivals, will ultimately determine the price trajectory. The industry remains poised for shifts yet grounded in cautious optimism as groundnut’s fate sways with the wind and weather.