The fate of Gujarat’s groundnut crop hangs in the balance as the crucial Janmashtami deadline approaches. Experts warn of a potential 10 to 15% loss if timely rains do not grace the region. Government data reports a 4% reduction in groundnut sowing in Gujarat compared to the previous year, a minor shift within the typical 7 to 8% variation range.
Gujarat’s groundnut crop received substantial rains in late July, but subsequent beneficial rains have been notably absent, posing a threat to yields. Without rain within the next 4 to 7 days, a 10 to 15% decline in crop yield is expected. The regions of Junagadh, Gir Somnath, Keshod, Veraval, Una, Kodinar, and Mangrol, which initially experienced heavy rainfall, now stand at risk. A further delay could escalate losses to 20% or more.
Market conditions reveal that if favourable rain prevails until Janmashtami, a robust groundnut crop may be realized, potentially surpassing 2.9 to 3.0 million tonnes of last year’s production. Conversely, prolonged dry spells within the next 15-20 days could result in losing three to four lakh tonnes. The current year witnesses a significant shift in groundnut cultivation patterns in Gujarat, with a heightened preference for the G 32 variety leading to reduced sowing of G 20 and G 10 varieties. The new Ki 32 variety yields 20 to 25 heads per head, presenting an advantage over other variants.
Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have recorded the highest groundnut sowing in a decade. With these states focusing on the TJ variety, groundnut seed stocks are projected to surge. Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana await October for new groundnut sowing, contingent on good September rains to stimulate demand for groundnut seeds in Gujarat.
As Gujarat’s groundnut crop navigates the intricate interplay of climate, sowing patterns, and market dynamics, the delicate balance between rain and yield remains a decisive factor in the sector’s future. Thus, if there are no showers, the groundnut market may see some decline in the future.
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