Hazelnut Prices Ease but Stay Firm as Black Sea Weather Turns Ideal

Hazelnut kernel prices from Turkey and Georgia are edging slightly lower from May highs but remain historically firm, with origin spreads intact and buyers still paying a clear premium for Georgian material. With stable, warm weather in the Black Sea orchards over the next three days and no immediate crop threats, nearby downside looks limited, though short‑term softening is visible in offers. Turkish FOB prices for 11–15 mm natural kernels have eased around 3–5% since late May, while Georgian FCA offers in Poland have slipped marginally but still trade about one third above Turkish origin. Local spot prices in Turkey’s Black Sea region show a wide band, reflecting quality and region, but not a collapsing market, keeping exporters cautious about aggressive discounts. Warm, settled weather in Trabzon and Batumi supports crop development and calms weather‑risk premiums for now, shifting focus back to demand from European confectionery and currency moves.

Prices & Spreads

Approximate export parity levels converted to EUR (assuming 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR):

Black Sea farm‑gate quotes in Turkey’s free market are reported in a broad band around 137–196 TRY/kg as of 15 June, underlining solid underlying value but also regional and quality differentiation.

Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers

Structurally, global hazelnut supply in 2025/26 is expected to tighten versus the previous season, with Turkey’s crop projected lower year‑on‑year while Georgia remains relatively stable but small in absolute terms. This supports a firm floor under international prices, even as current offers show modest week‑on‑week easing.

Short‑term demand from European confectionery remains steady rather than booming, but overall nut consumption in Europe is strong and Turkey continues to expand fruit and nut exports, reflecting resilient overseas demand. No fresh policy shocks or trade restrictions specific to hazelnuts have emerged in the last few days, keeping trade flows from Turkey and Georgia to the EU uninterrupted.

Weather in key hazelnut belts is benign. For Trabzon on Turkey’s eastern Black Sea coast, forecasts for 16–18 June indicate sunny, pleasant conditions with highs around 25°C and mild nights, ideal for mid‑season orchard development. Batumi and western Georgia show a similar pattern with warm, sunny days near 26°C through 18 June, supporting good vegetative growth and limiting immediate weather risk premiums in Georgian origin.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Global hazelnut consumption remains heavily driven by Western European confectionery and spreads, which continue to underpin baseline demand even when broader tree‑nut trade to Turkey has softened.
• International industry sources highlight that Turkish state pricing policy and intervention sales in recent seasons have helped maintain relatively high processed hazelnut prices, limiting downside even in slower demand phases.
• With the world 2025/26 supply forecast below the prior season and stable ending stocks, current modest price declines look more like a technical correction from elevated levels than the start of a deep bear market.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Buyers (EU roasters, confectioners): Use the current 1–5% easing in Turkish FOB offers to extend cover modestly into Q3, especially for 13–15 mm, but avoid over‑committing given still‑elevated absolute levels and stable supply.
• Origin sellers Turkey (TR): With farm‑gate prices firm and global balance tighter than last year, maintain price discipline; consider small, selective discounts on smaller calibres or roasted meal to stimulate volume without undermining core grades.
• Origin sellers Georgia (GE): Georgian kernels retain a significant premium; to stay competitive, emphasize quality and traceability rather than price cuts, especially while Black Sea weather is favourable and no crop losses are priced in.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• Turkey (TR, FOB Istanbul): Sideways to slightly softer (0 to –1%) for natural kernels over the next three days, as good weather and stable free‑market prices reduce short‑term risk premiums.
• Georgia (GE, FCA PL hub): Largely sideways; sustained European demand and smaller exportable surplus versus Turkey argue against meaningful discounts in the immediate 3‑day window.