Hazelnut prices slide as Turkey faces heavy 2026/27 supply and weak exports

Turkish hazelnut prices are retreating as weak export demand collides with expectations of a much larger 2026/27 crop, pushing the market further away from last year’s peak. Without a demand recovery or quality‑driven supply tightening, prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short term. The international hazelnut market has entered June with a distinctly bearish tone. Turkish FOB prices for Levant 11/13 material have dropped sharply from their October 2025 highs, while export shipments lag far behind previous seasons. At the same time, crop forecasts for 2026/27 signal a heavy supply scenario in Turkey and steady output in Chile, reinforcing expectations of adequate global availability. Weather in the Turkish Black Sea remains generally favorable, supporting the high crop estimate. Against this backdrop, buyers are mostly covered and patient, while sellers face mounting pressure to accept lower bids.

Prices

According to benchmark assessments, Turkish hazelnuts 11/13 Levant quality, FOB Turkey, were at about USD 910 per 100 kg on 11 June, down roughly 11% over the last four weeks and 17% year‑on‑year. This marks a deep correction from the October 2025 peak of USD 1,790 per 100 kg, underlining how quickly the market has unwound previous tightness.

Converted into kernel market indications, recent Turkish offers for natural kernels ex Istanbul show a softening trend as well. Current spot quotes as of mid‑June imply roughly EUR 7.26/kg FOB for 11–13 mm natural kernels and around EUR 7.82/kg for 13–15 mm, with roasted meal trading nearer EUR 6.15/kg. Georgian kernels remain at a premium in Europe, with 11–13 mm around EUR 9.85/kg FCA Poland and larger sizes above EUR 10.7/kg, reflecting quality and origin differentiation.

Supply & Demand

Turkey’s export performance underscores the current demand weakness. From 1 September 2025 to 31 May 2026, Turkey shipped about 150,600 tonnes of hazelnuts, compared with 260,143 tonnes in the same period of 2024/25 and around 240,000 tonnes in 2023/24. This roughly 40% drop versus last season highlights slower offtake from key European confectionery buyers and more cautious purchasing strategies down the chain.

On the supply side, Turkey faces a potentially very large 2026/27 crop. The latest industry estimates put production at around 809,940 tonnes, a massive 56% increase from approximately 518,000 tonnes in 2025/26. With beginning stocks of about 150,000 tonnes, total Turkish supply could approach 960,000 tonnes in 2026/27. Improved orchard productivity and generally favorable weather in the Black Sea region so far this season support this generous outlook, adding to the bearish tone.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Global supply is further buffered by Chile, where hazelnut production for 2026/27 is projected around 120,000 tonnes, little changed from 120,700 tonnes in 2025/26, and total supply near 122,000 tonnes. However, quality concerns in Chile have drawn attention, prompting some buyers to return to Turkey despite its heavy supply scenario. This is particularly relevant for high‑spec industrial users seeking consistent kernel performance.

Ferrero, the world’s largest hazelnut buyer, re‑entered the Turkish market in May with purchase ideas around USD 5.20–5.84/kg depending on nut size. Yet actual volumes bought are reported at only around 5,000 tonnes as much of the available stock failed to meet quality requirements. This episode confirms that demand is selective and quality‑driven rather than volume‑driven at current price levels, limiting the immediate bullish impact of such buying interest.

Another important factor is domestic policy. Market participants are closely watching whether Turkey’s Grain Board (TMO) will adjust its intervention purchase price for 2026/27, especially after recent increases for other crops and in the run‑up to the 2027 elections. A higher intervention price could offer short‑term support to farmers and floor the market, but it would also need to be weighed against the large supply overhang and weaker export flow.

Weather Outlook

Recent weather monitoring for Turkey’s Black Sea coast suggests seasonally mild to slightly cooler temperatures and periodic rainfall, conditions generally favorable for hazelnut development. Official Turkish meteorological updates and international crop bulletins describe a pattern of adequate moisture without extreme heat stress in key provinces, aligning with expectations of a strong 2026/27 yield.

Short‑term forecasts into late June indicate continued mixed sun and showers along the coast, with no immediate signal of weather‑driven yield losses. Barring a sudden shift to severe storms or prolonged heat, weather is more likely to lock in the currently optimistic crop outlook than to tighten supply.

Market & Trading Outlook

Given the combination of weak exports, heavy projected supply and generally favorable weather, the near‑term balance for hazelnuts remains clearly bearish. Price downside may be increasingly limited after the sharp correction from October 2025 peaks, but any sustained recovery will likely require either a noticeable pickup in demand or a meaningful quality‑related reduction in usable supply, particularly in Turkey and Chile.

• Buyers (industry/importers): Maintain a patient, hand‑to‑mouth approach in the very short term, but consider layering in coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 on further dips, especially for premium sizes and origins where quality constraints may tighten availability.
• Producers and exporters (Turkey): Be prepared for continued price pressure into the new crop; focus on quality upgrading and segregation to meet stricter buyer specs and to capture premiums where possible, while closely monitoring any TMO intervention signals.
• Speculative/financial players: The fundamental picture currently favors a cautious or slightly short bias, but with reduced conviction as prices move further below last year’s highs; volatility risk around official crop updates and policy announcements should be respected.

Short‑Term Price Indication (3‑Day View)

• FOB Turkey, natural kernels 11–13 mm: Slightly softer bias in the coming 3 days, with bids likely nudging below EUR 7.25/kg if sellers capitulate.
• FOB Turkey, natural kernels 13–15 mm: Stable to marginally weaker around EUR 7.8/kg as demand remains thin and new business is slow.
• FCA Poland, Georgian kernels: Mostly steady at elevated levels (around EUR 9.8–11.0/kg depending on size), supported by origin premiums and limited immediate pressure to discount.