Turkish hazelnut prices soften despite first 2026 crop contracts and rising TMO expectations. Concise outlook on prices, supply, risks and trading ideas.
Prices & Market Structure
DDP Central Europe levels for Turkish hazelnuts are currently around 7.75–9.00 EUR/kg for conventional and organic raw kernels 11–13 mm, with roasted kernels priced between roughly 6.40 and 11.50 EUR/kg and hazelnut paste near 5.96 EUR/kg. These spot indications align with a multi-quarter downtrend: quarter-on-quarter prices are down over 40%, and the half-year decline approaches 60%, even though values remain notably above levels seen 3–5 years ago.
FOB Turkish offers on June 15 for natural kernels from the 2025 crop confirm the softer tone: 11–13 mm are quoted near 7.26 EUR/kg and 13–15 mm around 7.82 EUR/kg, modestly below early June. Roasted meal and diced material trade at discounts around 6.15–7.20 EUR/kg FOB. Georgian kernels delivered into Central Europe remain at a premium near 9.85–11.00 EUR/kg FCA, reflecting both quality perception and tighter availability.
Supply, Demand & Crop Conditions
Supply-side sentiment is dominated by the first meaningful contracts for the 2026 Turkish crop. Some suppliers are still offering at current spot-related levels, while others are asking up to 2 EUR/kg more for new-crop positions, effectively testing the upper end of the range and establishing early reference prices. Most market participants, however, regard these offers as aggressive and not yet justified by either demand or current crop conditions.
Weather along the Black Sea coast remains supportive for the 2026 crop, with recent forecasts pointing to several days of mild, mostly sunny conditions conducive to normal vegetation. Pollination and early nut formation are reported as progressing well and no major weather threats have surfaced so far. The main structural risk is the brown marmorated stink bug, which could cause yield and quality losses, higher rejection rates and more intensive sorting if infestations worsen later in the season.
On the demand side, buyers are highly selective. Coverage is focused on Q4 2026, with very limited interest beyond that horizon and only modest prompt demand. Global buyers benefit from positive crop prospects in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Chile and the USA, which dilute Turkey’s traditional dominance and give large industrial users credible non-Turkish alternatives. Turkish exports for the current season are on track to be the weakest in more than two decades, underlining the sluggish demand recovery.
Fundamentals: Inflation, TMO & Quality Spreads
Domestic Turkish macro conditions are central to market psychology. The Central Bank has kept its key interest rate unchanged at 37% for a third consecutive meeting, while inflation remains above 32%. The official year-end inflation forecast for 2026 has been revised up sharply from 16% to 24%, feeding expectations that TMO will respond with a materially higher support price in August to protect growers’ real incomes.
This inflation backdrop, together with rising production costs for labor, energy and sorting, is one of the strongest bullish arguments among sellers. Many view current export prices as sitting below the likely next TMO floor and therefore see today’s levels as a strategic entry point rather than a ceiling. At the same time, quality spreads are extreme: processors still struggle with below-average crop quality, and good natural kernels are scarce, while abundant small kernels and lower-grade products continue to cap the overall market and intensify exporter competition.
Bullish vs. Bearish Drivers
- Bullish: Expected increase in TMO support prices in August; sustained Turkish inflation near 30%+; rising production costs; scarcity of high-quality natural kernels; and indications that a major global buyer is paying higher prices in Chile than in Turkey, suggesting latent upside for Turkish origin.
- Bearish: Strong crop prospects in competing origins (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Chile, USA); very weak Turkish export performance in the current season; uncertain demand recovery; persistent overhang of small-size and lower-quality material; and the fact that speculative long positions have largely been liquidated, leaving less financial support on the market.
Overall, fundamentals point to a market where expectations, not physical tightness, are driving any bullish narrative in the short term. Until either TMO confirms higher prices or weather/pest issues damage the 2026 crop, the balance of drivers remains mixed.
Outlook & Trading Ideas
In the short term, continued price volatility and wide offer dispersion are likely as sellers test higher 2026-crop levels and buyers resist committing beyond Q4 2026. Medium term, the August TMO announcement is the key event: if support prices rise substantially, current offers may quickly look under-valued, particularly for premium kernels. Conversely, if TMO surprises with only a modest adjustment, today’s aggressive new-crop quotes could retreat.
Trading outlook (concise)
- Industrial buyers (EU): Consider layering in additional Q4 2026 and early 2027 coverage at current DDP levels for premium kernels, especially if quality is guaranteed, while keeping flexibility on lower-grade material until TMO policy is clearer.
- Exporters/processors (Turkey): Avoid over-committing large volumes at fixed prices ahead of the TMO decision; focus on quality differentiation and premiums for well-sorted kernels to defend margins in a highly competitive environment.
- Speculative/financial players: With most longs already liquidated and downside from current levels more limited, consider selectively building options-based exposure around the August TMO announcement rather than outright directional bets.