Hazelnuts: Turkish Market Finds a Floor as 2026 Crop Demand Accelerates

Demand for the Turkish 2026 hazelnut crop is strengthening just as prices appear to have found a floor, with exporters rebuilding positions and buyers extending coverage into late 2026 and 2027. Strong crop prospects above 700,000 mt in-shell and intense origin competition cap the upside, but inflation, costs and limited quality supply argue against a renewed price slide. The market is shifting decisively from old-crop worries toward the size, quality and pricing of the upcoming 2026 harvest. Buyers see current levels as an attractive entry point for forward cover, while sellers are split between conservative and optimistic price expectations. Exporters’ renewed procurement and the absence of the traditional market leader in Turkey are reshaping price formation. At the same time, global supply growth in Chile, the USA and the Caucasus, coupled with uncertain demand recovery in Europe, keeps the market finely balanced.

Prices

Central European DDP prices for Turkish hazelnuts have stabilized after a steep multi-quarter correction. Conventional raw kernels 11–13 mm are around 7.76 EUR/kg, with organic kernels at approximately 9.08 EUR/kg and roasted 11–13 mm at about 11.80 EUR/kg. On a performance basis, prices are up roughly 2.4% week-on-week but still down nearly 40% versus the previous quarter and more than 60% over six months, underlining how deep the correction has been.

FOB Turkey indications confirm this stabilization: natural kernels 11–13 mm from Istanbul are near 7.26 EUR/kg, slightly lower than earlier in June, while comparable Georgian kernels 11–13 mm are around 9.85 EUR/kg FCA Poland, highlighting Turkey’s discount to alternative origins. Organic Turkish kernels 11–13 mm FOB İzmir are quoted near 19.25 EUR/kg, with roasted organic products above 22 EUR/kg, reflecting strong organic premiums and higher processing costs.

Supply & Demand

Demand is increasingly oriented toward the 2026 crop, with noticeable interest for Q4 2026 and even 2027 coverage. Two seller groups have emerged: conservative sellers, who price forward business around 200 TRY/kg in-shell and offer aggressively, and optimistic sellers, who anticipate a Toprak Mahsulleri Ofisi (TMO) support price of 250 TRY/kg or higher and therefore quote materially higher forward levels. This split has created unusually wide offer spreads, encouraging buyers to lift the more competitive forward positions while they last.

Exporters have started to rebuild positions, either to cover existing commitments or build strategic inventories ahead of the harvest transition. Their buying activity, together with the perception that the market has reached its bottom, is underpinning nearby prices. At the same time, the dominant global buyer is largely absent from the Turkish market and is seen relying more on Chilean supply, a structural shift that reduces immediate upside pressure in Turkey but also removes a key source of volatility on the bid side.

Globally, supply remains ample. Turkey’s 2026 crop prospects are improving, with production above 700,000 mt in-shell increasingly likely, while Azerbaijan, Georgia, Chile and the USA are also reported to have strong output potential. However, good-quality natural kernels are scarce, and large volumes of small kernels continue to weigh on prices. Official carry-over stocks in Turkey are put near 150,000 mt, yet these volumes are scarcely visible in physical trade, raising doubts over how much inventory will truly be available during the harvest transition.

Fundamentals

The Turkish financial environment remains dominated by high inflation near 30%, but the lira is trading in a relatively narrow range. This combination provides better short-term visibility for exporters while maintaining strong upward pressure on farmers’ price expectations. Production, labor and sorting costs stay elevated, meaning that current market prices, which many see below the level implied by a potential next TMO support price, are perceived as unsustainably low by a significant part of the supply side.

Bullish elements include the scarcity of top-quality kernels, expectations that TMO will need to set a firmer price floor to keep pace with inflation, exporters’ active rebuilding of stocks, and higher price levels in Chile that support the perception of Turkish undervaluation. Bearish elements are equally significant: very positive crop signals from key Turkish regions such as Ordu, strong competing crops in other origins, extremely weak Turkish export performance expected for this season, and an only tentative recovery in European demand, where some chocolate manufacturers continue to experiment with alternative nuts.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather conditions in the main Turkish Black Sea growing areas remain broadly supportive, with reports of strong crop development, particularly around Ordu. Adequate moisture and the absence of major weather shocks so far have reinforced expectations of a large 2026 harvest. In this context, market attention is firmly on yield formation through July and August, as these months will be critical for confirming today’s optimistic projections.

The key uncertainty remains the true size and accessibility of carry-over stocks at the start of the new season. Official figures suggest a substantial inventory, but limited visibility in physical channels suggests a part of this volume may be locked in non-commercial hands or of insufficient quality. How much of these stocks actually returns to the market will strongly influence price dynamics during the harvest transition.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

With the market’s focus now firmly on the 2026 crop, prices are expected to trade in a stable-to-firmer range in the coming weeks. More forward buying for Q4 2026 and beyond is likely, while the divergence between optimistic and conservative sellers should persist until TMO sends a clearer price signal. Volatility is expected to pick up around new crop assessments, potential weather events, and any communication on carry-over management.

• Industry buyers: Consider layering additional forward coverage for late 2026 and early 2027 while current levels still reflect the deep multi-quarter correction, prioritizing good-quality natural kernels and organic material.
• Exporters: Maintain disciplined inventory building, focusing on quality differentiation; given narrow lira volatility and high inflation, avoid over-committing at aggressive pre-harvest discounts.
• Producers: Monitor TMO policy and inflation closely; where possible, hedge part of expected production via forward sales near or above the 200 TRY/kg in-shell reference, while retaining some exposure in case of stronger price support.

Short-Term Price Indications (3 Days)