Resumption of Sugar Exports from India
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has made a significant forecast, suggesting a potential resurgence in sugar exports from India during the upcoming 2024-25 marketing season. This projection sets the stage for intensified competition for Thailand in Asian markets.
Impact on Thailand’s Export Market
Thailand is bracing for a potential reduction of around 10 percent in sugar exports, totaling approximately 9.0 million tonnes. This significant shift is a direct result of the potential revival of Indian sugar exports. Despite India’s re-entry into the export arena, the quantity is expected to remain limited initially. This could potentially lead importers to continue sourcing sugar from Thailand.
India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, and Thailand, the second-largest sugar exporter, are not just players but significant influencers in the global sugar trade. Their actions and decisions have far-reaching implications for the industry.
From Export Bans to Market Openings
In October 2023, the Government of India imposed an indefinite ban on sugar exports, citing domestic supply concerns. However, recent indications of improved production and stocks from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) have prompted discussions. It is on potential export allowances, albeit without clear government directives.
Similarly, Thailand enforced export controls to prioritize domestic supply and stabilize prices. However, responding to surplus stock and demands, the Thai government has now lifted export restrictions, signaling a shift in policy.
Production Projections and Market Fluctuations
Thailand’s sugar production is forecasted to surge by 16 percent to reach 10.2 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season, rebounding from a 20 percent decline witnessed in the previous season. This upswing in production aligns with global market expectations, with stakeholders closely monitoring India’s production outlook for the upcoming season.
The impending sugar export events from Thailand indicate a significant shift in the global trade scenario. With India poised to re-enter the export market, Thailand faces the prospect of heightened competition, potentially leading to a 10 percent reduction in exports. As both India and Thailand play critical roles in the global sugar trade, it is imperative for market stakeholders to not only monitor but also adapt to evolving production projections and policy changes. While Thailand anticipates a surge in production for the 2024-25 season, India’s export trajectory remains uncertain, as it is dependent upon government directives.