Sesame Seeds

Sesame Prices Expected to Fall Due to Weather and Demand

Mintec Global
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White Sesame Prices to Drop by $0,06 to $0,08 Per Kg

The summer sesame crop in Gujarat is estimated to be 0.125 million tonnes. Despite improved prices due to worsening weather, there is no significant export demand. The prices have remained at $1,80 to $1,81. There is no scope for sesame prices to increase from this level. Even when sesame prices were $1,78 per kg, there was no export demand. Romal Patel has forecasted a decrease in white sesame prices by $0,06 to $0,08 per kg.

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Lack of Export Demand from China and Other Countries

China’s stance is now calm, with no demand from other countries either. Recent rains have not significantly affected the sesame crop. A certain amount of rain-damaged goods will be used in Hald. One day’s rain does not cause any damage to the crop. Most of the harvesting in Gujarat has been completed. There will be pressure on income in a week or two. When income increases, prices may fall by $0,06 to $0,08 per kg. If there is no demand, the price will fall.

Market Stabilization Expected with Increased Demand

The market is expected to stabilize if demand for white sesame increases. Pipelines in the country are currently empty. Considering the long-term current season range, the bottom for white sesame shorts is $1,68. Prices will not move above $1,82 to $1,83. The market is likely to move within this range.

Global Sesame Market and Trade Dynamics

Currently, the harvest is ongoing in Mozambique and Tanzania. The price of Mozambique sesame is being said to be $22,20 to $22,80 per ton. Trade with China has started from there. Indian sesame is subject to import duty. China has to pay the same price as India or Mozambique. The sesame crop in Pakistan is bumper and it will arrive in August-September. Its forward price is $18,96 to $19,20. Pakistan is doing active rupee forward export trade. A bumper crop in Pakistan is expected in two-three months. Buyers are now purchasing as per requirement.

Brazil’s Crop and Forward Delivery Prices

Brazil’s crop is also good, with the forward delivery price currently quoted at $17,40 to $18,00 per ton. Indian importers have done significant import business with Brazil. The sesame will reach India after July-August. It takes 40 days after shipment. These Brazilian sesame seeds will come to India between the completion of our summer crop and the arrival of the monsoon crop.

Impact on White Sesame Prices

Pressure on income in white sesame will likely cause a price drop of $0,07 to $0,08 per kg. The summer sesame crop in Gujarat is estimated to be around 1.25 million tonnes. There has been no significant damage to the sesame crop due to recent rain and storm. The crop estimate remains unchanged since most of the sesame crop has been harvested.

Black Sesame Crop and Price Trends

The black sesame crop in Gujarat is expected to reduce by 50 percent, 8,000 to 10,000 tonnes. The crop increased by 60 to 70 percent in Surat compared to last year. The income of black sesame is low, with prices ranging from $37,20 to $38,40 per 20 kg. Currently, 200 to 300 bags of black sesame are arriving, expected to increase to 500 to 700 bags in Rajkot mandi during the season.

Impact of Price on Black Sesame Cultivation

When summer sesame was sown in Gujarat, white and black sesame prices were equal. Now, black sesame prices are slightly higher. This price difference led to increased cultivation of white sesame annually. Consequently, the black sesame crop is expected to reduce. This year, the black sesame crop in Gujarat is estimated at 8,000 to 10,000 tonnes. Last year, it was between 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes. Hence, there will be a 50 percent reduction.

Export Demand and Market Outlook

The price of black sesame seed black export quality is $2,14 per kg. When income pressure increases, the price will drop to $2,04 per kg. There is retail export business for black sesame, but demand is not high. Europe is now passing trade. Indian export demand is affected by the decline of black sesame in Myanmar. If Myanmar’s parity does not settle down, the demand for Indian black sesame may increase. This year, the income of black sesame in Rajkot yard will rise in fifteen days. It will increase to 500 to 700 bags, compared to 1,500 to 1,700 bags last year. In such a situation, the crop will be less, but income will be slightly higher. Black sesame ripens ten days later than white sesame. Therefore, the yield of black sesame will increase five to seven days after the maximum yield of white sesame.