Indian Raisins Edge Softer as Monsoon Skies Stay Friendly for Stocks

Indian raisin prices in New Delhi are drifting slightly lower, with premium food-grade grades easing by around 1% over the past week in EUR terms, while bird‑feed Malayar values hold flat. Export‑oriented Indian offers remain at a discount to Turkish sultanas, where the new season has opened quietly and below growers’ expectations. The market tone is mildly bearish in India: warehouses are reasonably supplied after a normal February–April drying season, and current monsoon weather over Maharashtra’s raisin belt is cloudy but largely benign, supporting stock preservation rather than creating fresh quality problems. At the same time, Turkey’s delayed yet now‑advancing Sultani harvest is adding a soft ceiling to global prices as buyers wait for clearer guidance from the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) and for spot volumes to build. Traders in India remain focused on near‑term export demand to the Middle East and Europe and on currency moves rather than supply shocks.

Prices

All price levels and changes below are approximate and expressed in EUR/kg using a working rate of 1 EUR ≈ 92 INR and 1 EUR ≈ 90 TRY.

Indian retail references for premium green and black raisins in Maharashtra (online offers ~₹299–799/kg) convert to roughly 3.25–8.70 EUR/kg, confirming that New Delhi wholesale is trading at a typical discount to consumer prices. Turkish sultana spot activity in Izmir has been minimal so far this week, with the commodity exchange showing no fresh traded volumes and only indicative reference levels, underlining a hesitant start to the export season.

Supply & Demand

Indian raisin supply is dominated by Maharashtra, especially Sangli–Tasgaon and surrounding districts, where Thompson Seedless grapes are dried mainly between February and April. With this year’s drying season already completed and no major reported production shocks, current market flows are shaped more by stock management in warehouses than by new‑crop uncertainty.

On the demand side, exports of Malayar‑type raisins from India remain diversified across roughly 19 destination countries, with India accounting for a dominant share of global Malayar exports. For higher‑grade food raisins, traders report steady offtake into the Middle East and Europe, where Indian product continues to compete with Turkish sultanas on price. However, with Turkish exporters still largely on the sidelines awaiting a clearer domestic price signal from TMO, international buyers are content to work hand‑to‑mouth, which caps upside for Indian offers as well.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India)

For the key raisin‑growing belt in Maharashtra (around Sangli and Nashik), late‑August monsoon conditions are seasonally normal. Official forecasts for Sangli point to generally cloudy skies with light rain and maximum temperatures around 30–32°C and minimums near 22°C through 3 September, with no severe weather warnings issued.

At this stage in the marketing year, these conditions mainly affect stored stock rather than field drying. The moderate temperatures and limited rainfall reduce the immediate risk of warehouse heat damage, though intermittent humidity spikes still call for careful ventilation and moisture monitoring in on‑farm and semi‑controlled storage. No weather‑related disruptions to transport or logistics are currently indicated for the region.

External Drivers

In Türkiye’s core Sultani region around Manisa, the 2026 grape harvest reportedly started 10–15 days later than usual and faced episodes of heat stress, but is now progressing with grapes laid out for drying for raisin production. Market commentary notes low initial export volumes and local prices that lag growers’ expectations, leaving sentiment subdued as the trade waits for a formal TMO intervention price to set the floor for the new crop.

For Indian exporters, this combination of delayed yet ultimately adequate Turkish supply and a hesitant price environment abroad tends to reinforce a sideways bias. Importers in Europe can also source table grapes from Turkey between August and October, which indirectly influences raisin demand in the short term as buyers balance dried versus fresh procurement. No major currency shock has been reported in the last three days that would materially change the EUR‑denominated competitiveness of Indian raisins.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term (next 1–2 weeks): With Indian New Delhi FCA/FOB prices easing only marginally and Turkish exporters still largely inactive, expect a narrow trading range with a mild downward bias for standard Indian grades.
• Buyers: Food manufacturers and packers with Q4 needs may use current softness to extend cover modestly, prioritising higher grades (golden AA) where the discount to Turkish sultanas remains visible.
• Sellers: Indian shippers should avoid aggressive under‑cutting; instead, differentiate by prompt shipment windows and consistent grading, as monsoon‑season logistics remain stable and quality is a key discriminator.
• Risk watch: Monitor any sudden TMO floor‑price announcement in Türkiye and shifts in EU/Middle East demand, which could quickly firm replacement values for Indian origin.

3‑Day Directional Price View (EUR)

• New Delhi, India (FCA/FOB raisins, food grade): Stable to slightly softer over the next three trading days, with moves likely confined to ±0.02 EUR/kg amid comfortable stocks and steady demand.
• Export parity India–Middle East (FOB raisins): Largely flat in EUR terms; any minor adjustment will track freight and FX rather than fundamentals.
• Turkish sultanas (FOB Aegean): Sideways with a soft tone as physical volumes remain thin and the market waits for clearer domestic price guidance.