MARS Agency Lowers Yield Forecasts for Wheat, Corn, and Rapeseed in the EU

Yield Forecast Reductions

In its June report, the MARS agency has reduced the yield forecasts for nearly all major agricultural crops in the EU. Despite these reductions, the forecasts remain close to the average levels seen over the past five years.

Impact of Excessive Rainfall

The yield estimates were lowered due to excessive rainfall in the Benelux countries, western Germany, northeastern France, and northern Italy. This heavy rainfall has negatively impacted plant development in these regions.

Positive Outlook in Bulgaria

In contrast, Bulgaria has experienced favorable harvest prospects. The precipitation levels were within normal limits, ensuring adequate water supply for both winter and spring crops. Despite high temperatures in June, the yield of winter crops remains high, and the sowing of spring crops is progressing well, potentially exceeding average yield levels.

Regional Variations in Crop Growth

In the primary northern agricultural regions, biomass accumulation and canopy expansion for grain corn and sunflower are at or above average levels. However, in the southeastern regions, a lack of moisture is slowing down crop growth, especially where root penetration is minimal.

Specific Crop Yield Forecasts

• Soft Wheat:The forecast for soft wheat yield in the EU has been reduced from 5.92 to 5.86 t/ha, aligning with the 5-year average.
• Corn: The corn yield forecast has been lowered from 7.59 to 7.55 t/ha, still exceeding the 5-year average of 7.35 t/ha by 3%.
• Rapeseed: The yield forecast for rapeseed has been decreased from 3.21 to 3.16 t/ha, slightly below the 5-year average of 3.17 t/ha.
• Barley: In a positive note, the barley yield forecast in the EU has been increased from 5.13 to 5.14 t/ha, surpassing the 5-year average of 4.93 t/ha by 4%.

As the EU agricultural sector adapts to varying weather conditions and their impacts on crop yields, it is essential for stakeholders to stay informed about these changes. Monitoring regional differences in precipitation and crop growth will be key to understanding and managing the upcoming harvests.