Pineapple Market Set for Growth: High Return Potential Amid Expansion and Market Access Challenges

The global pineapple market is undergoing a period of transformation, driven by expanding cultivation, favorable production economics, and surging demand in both fresh and processed segments. Recent analytical studies, like the one commissioned by Northland Inc. for the New Zealand market, highlight pineapples as the most commercially viable among several fresh produce options, offering a standout 6% rate of return on capital expenditure. Despite higher establishment costs (ranging from US$24,000 to US$145,000 per hectare), the rapid payback period and higher yields position pineapples at the forefront of new crop investments.

However, long-term success depends on overcoming key challenges — including yield variability, labor shortages, regulatory requirements, and weather-related risks. Access to larger population centers, such as Auckland and Bay of Plenty, remains essential for capturing full profit potential and supporting industry expansion. Currently, international trade for processed pineapple (notably dried pineapple) is active, with price stability observed in top origins from Vietnam and Thailand. Still, growers face a complex supply environment and must closely monitor market signals, weather patterns, and logistical constraints. With the Tuputupu Grow Northland Initiative and similar diversification strategies worldwide, the pineapple sector is entering a decisive growth phase, both for established exporters and up-and-coming producing regions focused on meeting rising global demand.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Date	Sentiment
Pineapple dried	VN	Hanoi, VN	–	6.80	0.00	2025-09-12	Stable
Pineapple dried	TH	Dordrecht, NL	Normal sugar, 5-7 mm	4.50	0.00	2025-09-11	Stable
Pineapple dried	TH	Dordrecht, NL	Normal sugar, 8-10 mm	4.55	0.00	2025-09-11	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Production Expansion: Targeted increases in cultivation are underway, driven by higher returns, particularly in regions like Northland, New Zealand (current: ~10 ha, potential: >400 ha).
• Profitability: Pineapples lead perennial crops with up to 6% return on investment and shorter payback periods versus alternatives (bananas, moringa).
• Market Access: Proximity and logistics improvements to large urban centers (Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty) are critical for margin expansion.
• Risks: Yield variability, weather, labor shortages, and regulatory hurdles may slow scaling and impact short-term forecasts.
• Supply Chain: Supply is relatively tight due to limited planted area but shows potential for rapid increases if risk management improves.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production Costs: Capex per hectare ranges from US$24,000–US$145,000 (Northland study). Short-term establishment is costly but offers a 6% ROI at mature yields.
• Gross Profits: Combined multi-crop system could deliver US$1.8–2.8 million annual gross profit on 480–790 ha, with pineapples at the top end.
• Comparative Returns: Pineapples outperform annual crops like ginger/turmeric (lower costs but less profit) and bananas/moringa (higher opportunity costs).
• Export Markets: Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines) and South America (Costa Rica) remain lead exporters. EU and US are main importers, with dried processed forms stable in price.
• Stock and Inventory: Inventory levels are stable; no significant gluts or shortages. Thai and Vietnamese dried pineapple supply chains are robust despite global logistical constraints.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam): Current weather is mostly favorable, but localized heavy rainfall is forecast in Thailand’s main pineapple areas, potentially disrupting short-term harvests. Vietnam expects normal conditions.
• New Zealand (Northland): Unseasonably mild and wet weather has improved establishment and transplant success. Risk of flooding or excessive rainfall remains (monitor over next 2 weeks).
• Impact: No immediate global supply threats, but local disruptions could impact quality/harvest windows in Thailand if heavy rains persist.

🌐 Key Producers and Stock Comparison

Country	2023 Production (Mt)	Stock Change	Comments
Costa Rica	3.25	Slight Decline	Still world #1 exporter—focus on fresh pineapple
Philippines	2.85	Stable	Major exporter, especially canned products
Thailand	2.29	Slight Growth	Main supplier for dried pineapple; weather-sensitive harvest
Vietnam	1.05	Stable	Key dried pineapple supplier
Indonesia	0.75	Slight Growth	Rapidly increasing processing capacity
New Zealand	Negligible	Rising	Emerging production, focused on domestic markets

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Price stability for dried pineapple is expected for the coming week, given flat week-on-week quotes from both Vietnam and Thailand.
• Monitor weather events in Southeast Asia for potential harvest/quality disruptions.
• New ventures or expansions (e.g., New Zealand) should exploit short-term price stability to secure contracts but remain vigilant for supply risk spikes.
• Diversified sourcing is recommended for processors/importers to manage origin-related weather and logistical risks.
• Producers should prioritize capacity-building and market access improvements to major cities.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Product/Type	Forecast Price (EUR/kg)	Market Direction
Hanoi, VN (FOB)	Pineapple dried	6.80	Stable
Dordrecht, NL (FCA)	Pineapple dried, 5-7 mm	4.50	Stable
Dordrecht, NL (FCA)	Pineapple dried, 8-10 mm	4.55	Stable

Short-term prices are not expected to change significantly; global market signals and regional weather are the most likely sources of volatility in the coming weeks.