The global pineapple market is experiencing a period of heightened volatility, with fresh pineapple prices in Thailand surging to BHT 14.00-15.00/kg – a significant increase compared to the previous month. This sharp price rally is primarily the result of a pronounced supply shortfall, as daily availability has dropped to 2,500 metric tons, falling 500 mt short of the 3,000 mt/day needed by the canning industry. The resulting squeeze is putting pressure on processors and exporters alike, with concerns mounting over potential temporary shutdowns of canning operations as early as July if the trend persists. Such disruptions could have ripple effects on both local and international markets, jeopardizing export commitments and impacting downstream supply chains.
However, there is cautious optimism on the horizon. Early and favourable rainfall patterns this year in Thailand and other major growing regions are expected to bolster the upcoming winter crop. Harvesting is anticipated to commence in October/November, with first deliveries likely in December/January. This improved weather outlook brings hope for a restoration of supply-demand equilibrium and price stabilization as the year progresses. In the interim, market participants are advised to closely monitor supply flows and processor activity, as any further tightening could exacerbate price volatility or trigger abrupt shifts in trade flows.
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Pineapple dried
FOB 6.80 €/kg
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normal sugar, 5-7 mm
FCA 4.37 €/kg
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normal sugar, 8-10 mm
FCA 4.40 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Pineapple Prices at a Glance
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price | Prev. Price | Update Date | Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pineapple dried | Vietnam | Hanoi, VN | FOB | 6.80 USD/kg | 6.80 USD/kg | 2025-05-24 | 0.00% | Stable |
| Pineapple dried (normal sugar, 5-7 mm) | Thailand | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.37 EUR/kg | 4.37 EUR/kg | 2025-05-22 | 0.00% | Stable |
| Pineapple dried (normal sugar, 8-10 mm) | Thailand | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.40 EUR/kg | 4.40 EUR/kg | 2025-05-22 | 0.00% | Stable |
| Fresh Pineapple | Thailand | Local | – | 14.00-15.00 BHT/kg | ~12.00 BHT/kg* | 2025-05-24 | +16%-25% | Bullish |
*Estimate based on previous month
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Supply Shortfall: Current daily supply (2,500 mt) is 500 mt below canning industry requirements, causing upward price pressure and risk of processor shutdowns.
- Processor Impact: If shortages persist, temporary shutdowns in July could disrupt both domestic processing and export flows.
- Export Commitments: Tight supply threatens fulfillment of existing contracts, particularly for canned pineapple and dried products.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Inventory Levels: Processors are running lean, with minimal buffer stocks due to supply constraints.
- Speculative Positioning: Market sentiment remains bullish in the short term, as buyers seek to secure volumes ahead of potential further tightening.
- Recent History: Compared to the last market report, prices have increased sharply due to worsening supply, despite stable prices for dried pineapple exports.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Prospects
- Rainfall: Early and favourable rains in Thailand are expected to benefit the winter crop, improving yields and quality.
- Harvest Timeline: Main harvest is forecast for October/November, with supply to processors and exporters expected from December/January.
- Risk Factors: Any adverse weather over the next two months could prolong the supply squeeze and delay recovery.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (est.) | Stock Situation | Export Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand | ~2.3 million mt | Tight, declining | Canned, dried |
| Philippines | ~2.9 million mt | Stable | Fresh, processed |
| Costa Rica | ~3.1 million mt | Moderate | Fresh export |
| Indonesia | ~1.9 million mt | Stable | Processed |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term supply tightness will likely keep prices elevated into July.
- Monitor processor activity and inventory levels closely; further shutdowns could trigger price spikes.
- Exporters should communicate proactively with buyers regarding potential shipment delays.
- Importers are advised to secure contracts early for Q3/Q4 delivery to hedge against further volatility.
- Watch for updates on winter crop development; improved weather could ease market tightness from December onward.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price | Forecast Range | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand (Fresh) | 14.00-15.00 BHT/kg | 14.20-15.50 BHT/kg | ↑ Slightly Up |
| NL (Dried, FCA) | 4.37-4.40 EUR/kg | 4.35-4.45 EUR/kg | → Stable |
| VN (Dried, FOB) | 6.80 USD/kg | 6.75-6.85 USD/kg | → Stable |